khafra comments on 5 Second Level: Substituting the Question - Less Wrong

20 Post author: malthrin 28 October 2011 12:20AM

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Comment author: lessdazed 28 October 2011 09:14:31AM 1 point [-]

This is a bad example because a major error is people taking too much of an inside view.

Comment author: khafra 28 October 2011 02:00:51PM 0 points [-]

Good point. As well as "how do I feel about the president?" being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn't anti-inductive like a market.