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jkaufman comments on Whole Brain Emulation: Looking At Progress On C. elgans - Less Wrong
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"A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08." 76% confidence
"A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01." 99.8% confidence
Bleh, I see I was again unclear about what I meant by nailing down - more precisely, how would one judge whatever has been accomplished by 2014/2020 as being 'complete' or 'functional'? Frequently there are edge cases (there's this paper reporting one group's abandoned simulation which seemed complete oh except for this wave pattern didn't show up and they had to simplify that...). But since you were good enough to write them:
(Which paper are you referring to?)
That was just a rhetorical example; I don't actually know what the edge cases will be in advance.