I'm curious where you'd estimate 50% chance of it existing and where you'd estimate 90%.
The jump from 76% to 99.8% is to my mind striking for a variety of reasons. Among other concerns, I suspect that many people here would put a greater than 0.2% chance of some sort of extreme civilization disrupting event above that. Assuming a 0. 2% chance of a civilization disrupting event in an 8 year period is roughly the same as a 2% chance of such an event occurring in the next hundred years which doesn't look to be so unreasonable but for the fact that longer term predictions should have more uncertainty. Overall, a 0.2% chance of disruption seems to be too high, and if your probability model is accurate then one should expect the functional simulation to arrive well before then. But note also that civilization collapsing is not the only thing that could easily block this sort of event. Events much smaller than full on collapse could do it also, as could many more mundane issues.
That high an estimate seems to be likely vulnerable to the planning fallacy.
Overall, your estimate seems to be too confident, the 2020 estimate especially so.
I would put something like a 0.04% chance on a neuroscience disrupting event (including a biology disrupting event, or a science disrupting event, or a civilization disrupting event). I put something like a 0.16% chance on uploading the nematode actually being so hard that it takes 8 years. I totally buy that this estimate is a planning fallacy. Unfortunately, being aware of the planning fallacy does not make it go away.
Being able to treat the pattern of someone's brain as software to be run on a computer, perhaps in parallel or at a large speedup, would have a huge impact, both socially and economically. Robin Hanson thinks it is the most likely route to artificial intelligence. Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom of the Future Of Humanity Institute created out a roadmap for whole brain emulation in 2008, which covers a huge amount of research in this direction, combined with some scale analysis of the difficulty of various tasks.
Because the human brain is so large, and we are so far from having the technical capacity to scan or emulate it, it's difficult to evaluate progress. Some other organisms, however, have much smaller brains: the nematode C. elegans has only 302 cells in its entire nervous system. It is extremely well studied and well understood, having gone through heavy use as a research animal for decades. Since at least 1986 we've known the full neural connectivity of C. elegans, something that would take decades and a huge amount of work to get for humans. At 302 neurons, simulation has been within our computational capacity for at least that long. With 25 years to work on it, shouldn't we be able to 'upload' a nematode by now?
Reading through the research, there's been some work on modeling subsystems and components, but I only find three projects that have tried to integrate this research into a complete simulation: the University of Oregon's NemaSys (~1997), the Perfect C. elegans Project (~1998), and Hiroshima University's Virtual C. Elegans project (~2004). The second two don't have web pages, but they did put out papers: [1], [2], [3].
Another way to look at this is to list the researchers who seem to have been involved with C. elegans emulation. I find:
This seems like a research area where you have multiple groups working at different universities, trying for a while, and then moving on. None of the simulation projects have gotten very far: their emulations are not complete and have some pieces filled in by guesswork, genetic algorithms, or other artificial sources. I was optimistic about finding successful simulation projects before I started trying to find one, but now that I haven't, my estimate of how hard whole brain emulation would be has gone up significantly. While I wouldn't say whole brain emulation could never happen, this looks to me like it is a very long way out, probably hundreds of years.
Note: I later reorganized this into a blog post, incorporating some feed back from these comments.
Papers:
[1] The Perfect C. elegans Project: An Initial Report (1998)
[2] A Dynamic Body Model of the Nematode C. elegans With Neural Oscillators (2005)
[3] A model of motor control of the nematode C. elegans with neuronal circuits (2005)
[4] Robust spacial navigation in a robot inspired by C. elegans (1998)
[5] Neural network models of chemotaxis in the nematode C. elegans (1997)
[6] Chemotaxis control by linear recurrent networks (1998)
[7] Computational rules for chemotaxis in the nematode C. elegans (1999)
[8] A Dynamic Network Simulation of the Nematode Tap Withdrawl Circuit: Predictions Concerning Synaptic Function Using Behavioral Criteria (1996)
[9] A Neural Network Model of Caenorhabditis Elegans: The Circuit of Touch Sensitivity (1997)