davidad comments on Whole Brain Emulation: Looking At Progress On C. elgans - Less Wrong

40 Post author: jkaufman 29 October 2011 03:21PM

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Comment author: gwern 31 October 2011 06:28:10PM 3 points [-]

Bleh, I see I was again unclear about what I meant by nailing down - more precisely, how would one judge whatever has been accomplished by 2014/2020 as being 'complete' or 'functional'? Frequently there are edge cases (there's this paper reporting one group's abandoned simulation which seemed complete oh except for this wave pattern didn't show up and they had to simplify that...). But since you were good enough to write them:

  1. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4123
  2. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4124
Comment author: davidad 02 November 2011 03:04:10AM 2 points [-]

Ah, I see. This is the sort of question that the X Prize Foundation has to wrestle with routinely. It generally takes a few months of work to take even a relatively clear problem statement and boil it down to a purely objective judging procedure. Since I already have an oracle for what I it is I want to develop (does it feel satisfying to me?), and I'm not trying to incentivize other people to do it for me, I'm not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I'm not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it's probably planning fallacy anyway. However, I'm open to arguments to the contrary.

Comment author: gwern 02 November 2011 03:45:59AM 0 points [-]

I'm not convinced that I should do said work for the C. elegans upload project. I'm not even particularly interested in formalizing my prediction for futurological purposes since it's probably planning fallacy anyway.

Well, that's fine. I've make done with worse predictions than that.