I like the idea in the quotation, but it seems a little off. Being wrong isn't like winning the lottery; being wrong is bad. It's like "winning the lottery" to find out you're wrong, because then you stop being in that bad state (hopefully). Phil Birnbaum knows this (he says so in the post), but that doesn't make the line "Being wrong is like winning the lottery" much less annoying.
Thanks! Now changed in original.
Phil Birnbaum at Sabermetric Research writes about how people have things backwards; it's great to find out that you're wrong:
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