Great point Phil! I didn't see that, that is an important difference in the cases.

I had mentally automatically interpreted your point "it's bad to be wrong. Therefore, if you're wrong, the best thing is to *stop being wrong*. And the way to stop being wrong is to change your mind." as a special case of his, "the state of the world in the 'was wrong/am right' case means more future success than the state of the world in the 'was wrong/still wrong' case."