Logos01 comments on Rationality Quotes November 2011 - Less Wrong
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Have you read many of the "99%" bio-snippets? Having gone through about a hundred of them now, I am struck by nothing else save how exquisitely bad those people are at the skill of making sound economic decisions. Honestly; if the 99% is comprised of people who after two years of schooling have 60,000 in student debt knowing they have no career opportunities ahead of them ... why are they doing it?
The college wage premium is large and growing.
The unemployment rate is much worse among those who do not have a college degree.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't, basically.
The problem is that "college" is not an atomic thing. If you break it down by major, some are very much not worth the money and time, while others are very much worth the money and time. I mean, check out Table 7: computer software engineers with a bachelor's degree have twice the lifetime earnings of teachers with a bachelor's degree, who themselves barely earn more than the average person with "some college."
And so when you hear that the number of people seeking journalism degrees is growing, you start to wonder if those people don't know that journalism is a collapsing field, or if they don't care.
A person enrolling in an architecture degree program in 2004 probably estimated that their employment prospects were quite good. Too bad said person graduated in 2008. Predicting job prospects at the moment of matriculation is a ticklish thing.
I have long been of the opinion that much of that is a result of privilege more than actual benefit of college education. I myself was able to find my way to an income above the national average per individual (and at that on the lower end of average for my industry) without even an Associate's degree. (I've actually done this twice, in two different industries. After the housing market crashed I had to essentially start over from scratch. I made some economic strategy re-assessments after that external wrecking-ball destroyed the path I was then on, and am now once again on a track to an early retirement; it is my long-term goal to have sufficient capital reserves to be able to live comfortably off of 3% APY returns by the time I'm 55. The economic downturn delayed me from 50 to 55. And I will note that I'm doing this without engaging in entrepeneurship of any kind; my sole foray into that field demonstrated I do not have the necessary social skillset to succeed in that venue.)
And I have no student debt to pay off, at that.
My parenthetical is actually demonstrative of my point here: I have achieved all of these things not because I am especially gifted, or especially insightful, or especially privileged. I have started with little to no social safety net and have built/rebuilt myself a total of three times, once from personal failure which I assessed and acted upon to adjust as necessary, once from external failure.
The only thing I can claim to have is what Eliezer would call, I suspect, a "winning attitude". One of my primary supergoals is, simply: "do what works."
Whether the wage premium is a signalling issue or a skill issue, it's still a fact.
And while I congratulate you on your own good fortune, you are generalizing from one example.
Yes but correlation isn't causation.
(EDIT: I want to point out that the statement "going to college gets you good wages" is just as magical thinking, when expressed solely in that manner, as "It rains sometimes when I dance." Demonstrate a causal link between the two if you want the fact of their being correlated to be treated as meaningful.)
I am expressing a general principle through a single example, yes.
You're staring in the face of a giant availability bias.
"We are the 99%" is filled with people who can afford a webcam/camera, a computer, and internet access. Some even have gone to college. That's vastly richer than the average human being.
But still representative of somewhere between two-thirds and four-fifths of Americans. (The computer / webcam part anyhow). Especially with the advent of camera smartphones.
We have, I suspect, a definition problem. When I state "99%" I am referring to those who describe themselves by that title.
Uh, no that's not what it's saying. It's railing against the top 1% of people that have huge capital. People who have webcams/cameras etc. are contained in the 99% of Americans. They aren't the "average" of the 99%. Each is one of the 99% who do not have huge capital and together they make up the 99%. In other words, in order for you to have a problem with their claims, you need to show that someone who says "We are the 99%" is actually part of the top 1%.
If you prefer, they could say "I am one of the 99%," but that's not as catchy.
I have no idea what you're responding to here.
paper-machine was pointing out that those who post on that blog come from a particular subset of the "99% movement", and so only looking at people from that blog will skew your judgement of the entire mass of people.
Were you disagreeing that making inferences about a movement based on one blog constitutes availability bias?
Oh, reading through it again, I just seemed to misunderstand both people.
I haven't read that many bio-snippets, so you may be right. My gut feeling is that the OWS protesters are mainly complaining about our lack of a social safety net and a broken political system, but I have no hard data to verify this.
That said, I think your next sentence rests on some incorrect assumptions. You say:
You are implicitly assuming that a). the primary purpose of college is to prepare you for a specific career; and that b). it is relatively easy to pick a career, put yourself through training for that career, and then reap the financial rewards. IMO both of these assumptions are wrong. I'm prepared to defend my views, if you're interested (assuming I interpreted your comment correctly, that is).
I think the quibble is more to do with why anyone would accrue $60,000 of debt knowing they'd have limited means of repaying it.