Vaniver comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong

77 Post author: Yvain 01 November 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: komponisto 01 November 2011 12:36:45AM 8 points [-]

The "Anti-Agathics" question is ambiguous:

What is the probability that any person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years?

Two possible meanings (which, at least for me, would result in very different numbers):

Given a randomly selected person living at this moment, what is the probability that they will reach an age of one thousand years?
What is the probability that at least one person living at this moment will reach an age of one thousand years?

Comment author: Vaniver 01 November 2011 12:40:47AM 5 points [-]

I believe the 2nd one is intended, though I agree with you that switching to something like "at least one" would make it unambiguous.

Comment author: komponisto 01 November 2011 01:02:36AM 0 points [-]

I'm ready to hit the "submit" button as soon as Yvain confirms (or denies) this...

Comment author: [deleted] 01 November 2011 05:52:25AM 1 point [-]

Oh, dear. I assumed he meant the first one.