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muflax comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong
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Comments (694)
This is great! I hope there's a big response.
It seems likely you're going to get skewed answers for the IQ question. Mostly it's the really intelligent and the below average who get (professional) IQ tests - average people seem less likely to get them.
I predict high average IQ, but low response rate on the IQ question, which will give bad results. Can you tell us how many people respond to that question this time? (no. of responses isn't registered on the previous survey)
I predict with 70% certainty that we will get an IQ in the range of 140-145 again, though I think it will be a bit lower than last time. I'm very surprised if it's outside 130-150.
(Also took the survey. Would like more "other" options so I can ramble about my totally different opinions on many issues, but whatever.)
Awesome. I said my IQ was 140 and 50% probability that I was higher than average, because I figured I'd be almost exactly average.
(I hope you didn't actually put "140ish", right?)
I'm actually surprised the lower bound on the previous survey was 120. I would have figured more of a U-shaped curve.
I put 140. Fixed.
Oh wow, is that what the IQ average was last time? Can I update my probability that mine will be higher?
Last survey in 2009: