nshepperd comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong

77 Post author: Yvain 01 November 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: nshepperd 01 November 2011 09:16:19AM *  6 points [-]

Hmm. For the anti-agathics question I'm wondering if I should be taking into account the probability of x-risk between now and 3011. The question looks like it's about our technical ability to solve aging, which means I should answer with P(someone lives to 1000 | no XK-class end-of-the-world scenario between then and now)? (Though of course that conditional is not what was written.)

ETA: in other words, see wedrifid's comment just above.

Comment author: homunq 02 November 2011 09:27:00PM 0 points [-]

I believe in quantum MW (among others) and so I am 100% sure that in some universe there will be a 100-year survivor. But I answered for the average branch. Probably worth clarifying.

Comment author: wedrifid 02 November 2011 10:14:35PM 1 point [-]

100% is a rather big number. To the extent that if you are wrong your entire model of the world is unable to recover!

Comment author: homunq 02 November 2011 10:29:53PM 0 points [-]

Actually, in the survey I said 99.9%. Which I rounded to 100% here because it wasn't my main point.

Comment author: orthonormal 03 November 2011 10:30:47PM 0 points [-]

Similarly here- I answered the cryonics/anti-aging/x-risk questions for the typical Everett branch, since I presume that makes them comparable to the responses of people who find MWI less likely.