= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Emile comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (694)
That's only embarrassing if you gave a probability of 75% of being +- 15 years. If you put 10 or 20%, you're fine.
I was 95% sure of the century, and was right about that much - but my 20% probability of +- 15 years didn't make any sense in hindsight, given the information that I had.
Embarrassing since lately I've been talking a lot about both probability and the history of philosophy after Newton.