Alex_Altair comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong

77 Post author: Yvain 01 November 2011 06:28PM

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Comment author: Alex_Altair 03 November 2011 12:45:43AM 1 point [-]

Because so many people are talking about the Newton question, I'm curious, how many people got closer than 7 years? That's how far I was. Also, I put 93% confidence within 15 years.

Comment author: RobinZ 03 November 2011 02:19:41AM 1 point [-]

2 years off, I believe. 45% confidence.

Comment author: endoself 04 November 2011 05:45:35PM *  1 point [-]

Exactly right, 95% confidence. I often remember facts, but underestimate my confidence in them but I'm getting better at overriding that, hence the choice of 95%.

Comment author: Alex_Altair 05 November 2011 01:32:22AM 1 point [-]

You win! Nice job.

Comment author: mkehrt 04 November 2011 07:16:00AM 0 points [-]

27 years early, 60% certain. Oops.

Comment author: dbaupp 04 November 2011 12:51:27PM *  6 points [-]

Oops

Gah! A single data point tells you very little about over-/underconfidence! Please, please stop acting like getting a 60% certain thing wrong (or 20% certain thing right) is a mistake.

A die has an 18% chance of rolling a 6. And that still happens. A die has a 66% chance of rolling a number larger than 2, and that sometimes doesn't happen. There is nothing unusual about these things, and the same applies for these estimation-with-confidence exercises!

(This isn't directed at you specifically, but there have been a few instances of this in this thread, and your comment was the "final straw")

Comment author: Prismattic 04 November 2011 10:32:45PM *  8 points [-]

I don't mean to be pedantic, but I have seen numerous people make this mistake on Lesswrong, so I am pointing it out:

1 die
2 or more dice

Comment author: dbaupp 04 November 2011 11:01:50PM *  0 points [-]

Hahaha, Muphry's Law strikes again... Thanks.

Comment author: mwengler 03 November 2011 11:29:02PM 0 points [-]

23 years late (got 2nd edition pretty close) with confidence of 15%.

Comment author: lavalamp 03 November 2011 03:15:38AM 0 points [-]

I was 7 years off, with a confidence of 20% (I thought I might have had the wrong century).

Comment author: JoshuaZ 03 November 2011 01:01:16AM 0 points [-]

I was 7 years off, and had 65% confidence of being within 15 years.

Comment author: Kutta 04 November 2011 05:30:23PM -1 points [-]

13 years off, 50% confidence.

Comment author: dlthomas 04 November 2011 05:34:53PM -1 points [-]

Guvegrra lrnef bss, 60% pbasvqrapr. V rkcrpg va gur fnzr qverpgvba, fvapr ebhaqvat unq fbzrguvat gb qb jvgu vg - friragrra uhaqrerq frrzf zber yvxryl gb or pubfra guna fvkgrra friragl sbhe...