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gwern comments on 2011 Less Wrong Census / Survey - Less Wrong
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I took it too. Disturbs me how much my alien probability changed when framed as 'in universe' vs 'in galaxy'.
I'm not sure why it should disturb you. If the probability of intelligent life evolving in galaxy x is the same for all x, and there are about 100 billion galaxies in our observable universe, then the chance of intelligent life in the observable universe is about 1-(1-x)^100 billion. This assumes that whether life evolves in any one galaxy is independent of whether it evolved in another.
I wish I had remembered to use this formula when I took the survey.