In that case, your survey should have asked something along the lines of the following: What do you estimate is the probability that the United States government had a role in the 9/11 attacks? Which can be easily adapted for Prediction Book: Evidence will become public in the next 10 years demonstrating that the US government had a role in the attacks.

But instead you went with a yes-no question and a meaningless "inside job/outside job" dichotomy. The Outside Job category includes a lot of conspiracy theories itself (Israel did it; the Illuminati did it, etc) so you aren't asking whether people "believe the official story" so much as whether they believe that the US government did it.

In a few years when more information about 9/11 becomes public it could be helpful to look back and see how LW stood on the issue.

I take it from this you expect that in a few years evidence to support your theory will surface. Accordingly, will you update in favor of "no conspiracy" if this evidence fails to surface? Have you updated based on the fact that it has been more than 10 years and no evidence has surfaced?

A better survey would be something like:

• structural engineers on how likely it is that the buildings would collapse if hit by a plane full of fuel

• "politics experts" (ideally historians and constitutional lawyers and experts at international relations and pundits with a good track record - i.e. people that are less likely to be tied to one party or government) about how likely it is that a government would run such a false flag operation

... and of course those surveys would need to be done in a way that avoids selection bias/self-selection, for example show up uninvited at a structural engineering conference and get everybody's opinion or something.

Why should I trust my biased brain, especially when the debates surrounding this issue have clearly been very emotionally charged?

Does that mean you will change your mind in direction of "outside job" if many LessWrongers tend to answer "outside job"?

Btw, up to now 4% of LWers believe in the "inside job" hypothesis, so there are quite a few.

That could just mean that you answered "inside job", and 24 people answered "outside job".

Whatever the case and the reasons I and others have in their mind regarding the opinion of the average LWer on 9/11 the scientific method has a clear answer: conduct and experiment! In this case a simple survey can deliver the data without much effort and withou having to think much.

The scientific method requires more than just having an opt-in online survey with three possible responses of "inside job", "outside job", and "no opinion".

Specifically, to be scientific, there must be a fourth option: "Ron Paul".

I forgot another important reason for the survey: having a historical data point of the sanity waterline here at LW. In a few years when more information about 9/11 becomes public it could be helpful to look back and see how LW stood on the issue.

Intrade. Longbets. PredictionBook. Or make a bet with me or somone else. I've already suggested you do this repeatedly. But repeating this claim and not even bothering to comment on PredictionBook or trying to talk to me or someone else about any form of bet is at best illogical behavior. I haven't downvoted your comments in this thread, but until you do at least one of the following with someone here I'm going to downvote any more 9/11 conspiracy related comments you make here.

Oh, I didn't realize I did that.

Ah. Didn't notice that either...