Hello,
we had a number of posts on 9/11, for example there was this one
http://lesswrong.com/lw/5ku/what_causes_people_to_believe_in_conspiracy/
that listed the opinions of people in several countries. But AFAIK there never has been a survey regarding the opinion of LWers on this subject. So here it is, I'm grateful for all answers:
Click here to take the survey. (Closed)
EDIT: Added a 3rd option(no opinion) to the survey.
EDIT 2: Link to other opinion polls:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_11_attacks_opinion_polls#United_States
EDIT 3: The survey is closed now(2012-06-14), no further answers will be accepted.
Answers:
Inside Job(The US Government did it) | 3 | 3% | |
Outside Job(Al Qaeda, Bin Laden or others did it) | 102 | 92% | |
I have no opinion on this. | 5 | 5% |
I disagree. (I am a downvoter.)
Consider Bayes. The prior proportion of people who do not think his conspiracy theory is crazy is 0.06, according to the article he linked to in the OP. (This assumes that your prior is equal to the US population, and since the significant majority of LW is American (I think) this is a reasonable prior. Even if I'm wrong, it's unlikely to affect the results significantly.) Roughly twenty people replied to the conspiracy theory thread without mentioning that they thought 9/11 was a conspiracy, which seems a highly likely response, if you actually thought that. Browsing through rolands post history, I find a number of users who have explicitly said they disagree with his theory: wedrifid, Eliezer, Mitchell_Porter, lessdazed, WrongBot, Constant, Blueberry, Nisan, mattnewport, Alicorn, simplicio, Jayson_Virissimo, retired_phlebotomist, quanticle, and... well. That's as far as I care to go. But I think it's pretty clear that roland had enough Bayesian evidence prior to making his post that virtually everyone here thinks his conspiracy theory is crazy.