A clarifying question. By 'rigor', do you mean the kind of rigor that is required to publish in journals like Risk Analysis or Minds and Machines, or do you mean something else by 'rigor'?

I mean the kind of precise, mathematical analysis that would be required to publish at conferences like NIPS or in the Journal of Philosophical Logic. This entails development of technical results that are sufficiently clear and modular that other researchers can use them in their own work. In 15 years, I want to see a textbook on the mathematics of FAI that I can put on my bookshelf next to Pearl's Causality, Sipser's Introduction to the Theory of Computation and MacKay's Information Theory, Inference, and Learning Algorithms. This is not going to happen if research of sufficient quality doesn't start soon.