timtyler comments on Biointelligence Explosion - Less Wrong

2 Post author: Dr_Manhattan 07 November 2011 02:05PM

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Comment author: timtyler 07 November 2011 07:25:47PM *  -1 points [-]

If the thesis were restricted to "predicting the future is so difficult that the vast majority of it is a waste of time" then it would look more reasonable.

Well, the brain is constantly predicting the future. It has to understand the future consequences of its possible actions - so that it can choose between them. Prediction is the foundation of all decision making. Predicting the future seems rather fundamental and commonplace to me - and I would not normally call it "a waste of time".

Comment author: JoshuaZ 07 November 2011 07:28:43PM *  6 points [-]

Ok. How about ""predicting the future to any substantial level beyond the next few years is so difficult that the vast majority of it is a waste of time."

(I disagree with both versions of this thesis, but this seems more reasonable. Therefore, it seems likely to me that people mean something much closer to this.)