If I really felt a .5 probability in my bones that I was living in a simulation, I don't think I'd be able to work as hard at achieving my goals; I wouldn't have as much will to power when it could all disappear any moment.

Would that depend at all on your beliefs about the simulators?

E.g., if you felt a .5 probability that you were in a simulation being run by a real person who shared various important attributes with you, who was attempting to determine the best available strategy for achieving their goals, such that you being successful at achieving yours led directly to them being more successful at achieving theirs, would your motivations change?