James_Miller comments on Michael Lewis on Kahneman and Tversky! [link] - Less Wrong
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Comments (2)
Here is a quiz from that article.
I think that the answer to 2 is incorrect.
Yeah. According to Google, the experiment did find that people neglect base rates:
Ironically, when analyzing the experiment, the Vanity Fair writers failed Bayes theorem in the opposite way: neglecting evidence, thus making the posterior equal to the prior.
We conclude that people don't understand Bayes.