...there is no compelling reason to believe in the future existence of an entity constructed in that way in the first place.
Yes, that's what bothered me about the paper all along. I actually think that the sort of AI they are talking about might require a lot of conjunctive, not disjunctive, lines of reasoning and that the the subset of all AGI designs possible that does not FOOM might be much larger than it is often being portrayed around here.
I have stopped understanding why these quotes are correct. Help!
More specifically, if you design an AI using "shallow insights" without an explicit goal-directed architecture - some program that "just happens" to make intelligent decisions that can be viewed by us as fulfilling certain goals - then it has no particular reason to stabilize its goals. Isn't that anthropomorphizing? We humans don't exhibit a lot of goal-directed behavior, but we do have a verbal concept of "goals", so the verbal phantom of "figuring out our true goals" sounds meaningful to us. But why would AIs behave the same way if they don't think verbally? It looks more likely to me that an AI that acts semi-haphazardly may well continue doing so even after amassing a lot of computing power. Or is there some more compelling argument that I'm missing?