Hmm. I think some sympathetic reading is needed here. Steve just means to say something like: "sufficiently powerful agent - it doesn't matter much how it is built". Maybe if you tried to "ramp up" a genetic algorithm it would never produce a superintelligent machine - but that seems like bit of a side issue.
Steve claims his "drives" are pretty general - and you say they aren't. The argument you give from existing humans and programs makes little sense to me, though - these are goal-directed systems, much like the ones Steve discusses.
Sure, and I'm saying his conclusion is only true for an at best very idiosyncratic definition of 'sufficiently powerful' - that the most powerful systems in real life are and will be those that are part of historical processes, not those that try to reinvent themselves by their bootstraps.
Humans and existing programs are approximately goal directed within limited contexts. You might have the goal of making dinner, but you aren't willing to murder your next-door neighbor so you can fry up his liver with onions, even if your cupboard is empty. Omohundro post...
I have stopped understanding why these quotes are correct. Help!
More specifically, if you design an AI using "shallow insights" without an explicit goal-directed architecture - some program that "just happens" to make intelligent decisions that can be viewed by us as fulfilling certain goals - then it has no particular reason to stabilize its goals. Isn't that anthropomorphizing? We humans don't exhibit a lot of goal-directed behavior, but we do have a verbal concept of "goals", so the verbal phantom of "figuring out our true goals" sounds meaningful to us. But why would AIs behave the same way if they don't think verbally? It looks more likely to me that an AI that acts semi-haphazardly may well continue doing so even after amassing a lot of computing power. Or is there some more compelling argument that I'm missing?