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cousin_it comments on What visionary project would you fund? - Less Wrong
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Except it won't be regular people using lie detectors on politicians. It will be government officials and big corps using lie detectors on regular people.
Also, if/when reliable lie detection tech appears, it probably won't take long for someone to develop a counter: a means of making oneself (or another person) truly believe a given statement. Of course, the first customers of such counter tech will also be governments and big corps.
This actually overstates the difficulty - you don't need to make people truly believe the statement, although that would work. You just need to make the analogues examined mimic those of someone who does truly believe the statement. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an arms race, with artificial belief driven toward honest belief in the long run.
I find it implausible for your level of certainty (and/or focus on listed scenarios) to be correct.
I agree about the second part. But the first part is pretty obvious, isn't it?
"Regular people using lie detectors on politicians" does seem impossible, but "government officials and big corps using lie detectors on regular people" (to any interesting extent) is far from clear, it's easy to see how it could be successfully resisted by appealing to human rights intuitions, or channeled towards significantly different forms of use, escaping your description. (Even China's regime is not certain to persist in relevant respects on this timescale.)
This seems apropos.