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RobertLumley comments on PredictionBook: A Short Note - Less Wrong
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Comments (37)
I've decided to sign up. I don't know why I dismissed this several times the first few times I saw it on here, it looks really interesting...
Edit: Why are you allowed to see what others predicted before you make a prediction yourself? That seems like it would wholly bias people...
This is a good point. Depending on what exactly you are using it for, you might or might not want to see others' predictions before you make your own. It would be a useful feature to be able to toggle that functionality on/off in the user settings.
One should be able to usefully incorporate other people's opinions, if only to adjust in the opposite direction!
As well, it'd be something of a UI/usability nightmare. If you really want to avoid contamination/additional information, make your own prediction and set it private or something.
I contemplated a strategy of always taking the average of the listed predictions. But that would be boring.
A less boring strategy: make two accounts, one assigning probabilities based on your intuition alone; the other based on the average of the listed predictions. Compare their calibrations.