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dlthomas comments on Help with a (potentially Bayesian) statistics / set theory problem? - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
I don't think I'm following you.
We see a new piece of evidence - one of the people prefers C to E
C will be preferred to E in half the lists. Those lists become more probable, the other half become less probable. How much more/less probable depends on how much error you expect to see and of what type.
Repeat on all the data.
You only actually look at the first member when asking the odds that a particular object is there - at which point, yes, you sum up the probability of those 720 sets.
Ah, I see. Instead of updating half the lists, I was updating the 720 sets where C is the #1 preference. Thanks for the clarification.