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zntneo comments on Random Flu Thoughts, including vaccination and base rates - Less Wrong
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I have had the flu vaccine regulary for the past 5 years and have never had an adverse reaction. Further how are you sure the "reactions" you are having are from the vaccine?
Sometimes it is clear that the reaction is from the vaccine, for example, if you arm is sore at the location of the flu shot injection of if you get dizzy and need to sit for 20 minutes in the doctor's office with monitoring. Other times it is less clear, possible reactions have to be taken in the context of how likely they are to occur randomly and how temporally linked they are to the shot. (For example, I wouldn't believe flu-like symptoms occurring a few weeks later is due to the shot.)
This is why we do population studies and don't rely on anecdotes because we cant be sure otherwise if the cause is due to a vaccine or randomness.
Well yes that context matters which is why I wondered how he new the reaction was due to the vaccine