? No.
I fully admitted that I have only an off-the-cuff estimation (i.e. something I'm not very certain about).
Then I asked you if you have something better - some estimate based in reality?
OK, so you have some assumptions that you attach some high but not extreme amount of probability to, according to which the chances of cryonics working are on the rough order of 10^-22. Fair enough. But given that the relevant question is how certain you are about the assumptions, why even bring up the 20 orders of magnitude, if it doesn't matter whether it's 20 orders of magnitude or 1000 orders of magnitude? What role could the 20 orders of magnitude number play in anyone's decision making?
Note that I'm a different person than user:CasioTheSane.
Question:
His response:
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