Question:
What are your thoughts on cryogenic preservation and the idea of medically treating aging?
His response:
A marvelous way to just convince people to give you money. Offer to freeze them for later. I'd have more confidence if we had previously managed to pull this off with other mammals. Until then I see it as a waste of money. I'd rather enjoy the money, and then be buried, offering my body back to the flora and fauna of which I have dined my whole life.
? No.
I fully admitted that I have only an off-the-cuff estimation (i.e. something I'm not very certain about).
Then I asked you if you have something better - some estimate based in reality?
OK, so you have some assumptions that you attach some high but not extreme amount of probability to, according to which the chances of cryonics working are on the rough order of 10^-22. Fair enough. But given that the relevant question is how certain you are about the assumptions, why even bring up the 20 orders of magnitude, if it doesn't matter whether it's 20 orders of magnitude or 1000 orders of magnitude? What role could the 20 orders of magnitude number play in anyone's decision making?
Note that I'm a different person than user:CasioTheSane.