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JoshuaZ comments on Why an Intelligence Explosion might be a Low-Priority Global Risk - Less Wrong
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How does this imply that there's a lot behind us? It could be that the technology that creates most of the great filter is something that generally arises close to the tech level where one is about to get largescale space travel. (I think the great filter is likely behind us, but looking just at the fact that it has taken us millions of years to get here is not by itself a decent argument that much of the filter is in fact in the past.)
There's around four-billion years worth of hold-ups behind us - and there's probably not much longer to wait.
That doesn't show that most of the risk isn't ahead - that is a complex speculation based on too many factors to fit into this blog comment. The point is that you can't argue from no aliens to major future risks - since we might well be past the bulk of the filter.