What have you done to seek info as to which charity is best?
What have you done? I would really like to hear how various SI members came to believe what they believe now.
How did you learn about risks from AI? Have you been evaluating charities and learn about existential risks? What did you do next, read all available material on AGI research?
I can't imagine how someone could possible be as convinced as the average SI member without first becoming an expert when it comes to AI and complexity theory.
I ran across the Wikipedia article about the technological singularity when I was still in high school, maybe around 2004. From there, I found Staring into the Singularity, SL4, the Finnish Transhumanist Association, others.
My opinions about the Singularity have been drifting back and forth, with the initial enthusiasm and optimism being replaced by pessimism and a feeling of impending doom. I've been reading various things on and off, as well as participated in a number of online discussions. Mostly my relatively high certainty is based on the simple fact...
I have become convinced that problems of this kind are the number one problem humanity has. I'm also pretty sure that most people here, no matter how much they've been reading about signaling, still fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
Here are two major screw-ups and one narrowly averted screw-up that I've been guilty of. See if you can find the pattern.
It may not be immediately obvious, but all three examples have something in common. In each case, I thought I was working for a particular goal (become capable of doing useful Singularity work, advance the cause of a political party, do useful Singularity work). But as soon as I set that goal, my brain automatically and invisibly re-interpreted it as the goal of doing something that gave the impression of doing prestigious work for a cause (spending all my waking time working, being the spokesman of a political party, writing papers or doing something else few others could do). "Prestigious work" could also be translated as "work that really convinces others that you are doing something valuable for a cause".
We run on corrupted hardware: our minds are composed of many modules, and the modules that evolved to make us seem impressive and gather allies are also evolved to subvert the ones holding our conscious beliefs. Even when we believe that we are working on something that may ultimately determine the fate of humanity, our signaling modules may hijack our goals so as to optimize for persuading outsiders that we are working on the goal, instead of optimizing for achieving the goal!
You can see this all the time, everywhere:
There's an additional caveat to be aware of: it is actually possible to fall prey to this problem while purposefully attempting to avoid it. You might realize that you have a tendency to only want to do particularly prestigeful work for a cause... so you decide to only do the least prestigeful work available, in order to prove that you are the kind of person who doesn't care about the prestige of the task! You are still optimizing your actions on the basis of expected prestige and being able to tell yourself and outsiders an impressive story, not on the basis of your marginal impact.