I became more convinced this was important work after talking to Anna Salamon. After talking to her and other computer scientists, I that a singularity is somewhat likely, and that it would be easy to screw up with disastrous consequences.
But evaluating a charity doesn't just mean deciding whether they're working on an important problem. It also means evaluating their chance of success. If you think SIAI has no chance of success, or is sure to succeed given the funding they already have, there's no point in donating. I have no idea how likely it is that they'll succeed, and don't know how to get such information. Holden Karnofsky's writing on estimate error is relevant here.
If you think SIAI has no chance of success, or is sure to succeed giving the funding they already have, there's no point in donating.
I agree, a very important point.
I became more convinced this was important work after talking to Anna Salamon.
I have read very little from her when it comes to issues concerning SI's main objective. Most of her posts seem to be about basic rationality.
She tried to start a webcam conversation with me once but my spoken English was just too bad and slow to have a conversation about such topics.
And even if I talked to ...
I have become convinced that problems of this kind are the number one problem humanity has. I'm also pretty sure that most people here, no matter how much they've been reading about signaling, still fail to appreciate the magnitude of the problem.
Here are two major screw-ups and one narrowly averted screw-up that I've been guilty of. See if you can find the pattern.
It may not be immediately obvious, but all three examples have something in common. In each case, I thought I was working for a particular goal (become capable of doing useful Singularity work, advance the cause of a political party, do useful Singularity work). But as soon as I set that goal, my brain automatically and invisibly re-interpreted it as the goal of doing something that gave the impression of doing prestigious work for a cause (spending all my waking time working, being the spokesman of a political party, writing papers or doing something else few others could do). "Prestigious work" could also be translated as "work that really convinces others that you are doing something valuable for a cause".
We run on corrupted hardware: our minds are composed of many modules, and the modules that evolved to make us seem impressive and gather allies are also evolved to subvert the ones holding our conscious beliefs. Even when we believe that we are working on something that may ultimately determine the fate of humanity, our signaling modules may hijack our goals so as to optimize for persuading outsiders that we are working on the goal, instead of optimizing for achieving the goal!
You can see this all the time, everywhere:
There's an additional caveat to be aware of: it is actually possible to fall prey to this problem while purposefully attempting to avoid it. You might realize that you have a tendency to only want to do particularly prestigeful work for a cause... so you decide to only do the least prestigeful work available, in order to prove that you are the kind of person who doesn't care about the prestige of the task! You are still optimizing your actions on the basis of expected prestige and being able to tell yourself and outsiders an impressive story, not on the basis of your marginal impact.