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Michaelos comments on OPERA Confirms: Neutrinos Travel Faster Than Light - Less Wrong
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Comments (63)
Are you willing to make a 1:89 bet that they will eventually be proven incorrect?
Are you allowed to make bets with Karma upvotes? For instance, is it reasonable to propose "You upvote me once right now. If they confirm that Neutrino's are traveling faster then the speed of light, You remove the upvote you gave me and I will upvote you 89 times."
On the one hand, that sounds like an abuse of the karma system. But on the other hand, it also sounds somehow more fun/appropriate than a money bet, and I feel if you manage to sucessfully predict FTL this far out you deserve 89 upvotes anyway.
Can other people weigh in on whether this is a good/bad idea?
It sounded like a bad idea at first, but if the bet is 1 upvote / 1 downvote vs. 89 upvotes/89 downvotes, it could actually be a good use of the karma system. The only way to get a lot of karma would be to consistently win these bets, which is probably as good an indicator for "person worth paying attention to" as making good posts.
I think we should just have a separate prediction market if for some reason we'd rather not use predictionbook.
The last time I looked at prediction book the allowed values were integers 0 - 100 which makes it impossible to really use it for this. Here the meaningful values are is it .00001 or is it .0000000001?
I liked this fellow's take.
Miley Cyrus is claiming > 1%, so your objection to PB does not apply. MC might like to distinguish between 1.1% and 1.0%, but this is minor.
If you're recording claims, not betting at odds, then rounding to zero is not a big deal. No one is going to make a million predictions at 1 in a million odds. One can enter it as 0 on PB and add a comment of precise probability. It is plausible that people want to make thousands of predictions at 1 in 1000, but this is an unimportant complaint until lots of people are making thousands of predictions at percent granularity.
An advantage of PB over bilateral bets is that it encourages people to state their true probabilities and avoid the zero-sum game of setting odds. A well-populated market does this, too.
This definitely sounds like an abuse of the karma system. With this, people could reach high karma levels just by betting, as even if they're wrong there's no downside to this bet.
They should include downvotes in the bet, so that every possible outcome is zero-sum.