You misunderstood what I was saying. I was referring to this:

In other words, the Republicans believe they can achieve complete victory so that they can enact their whole agenda, while Democrats believe they can block this victory. On a key component — Obama's re-election — Republicans believe they will defeat Obama with 1:6 odds, while Democrats believe this event has only 3:2 odds.** With a 9-fold difference in this key perception, it seems highly unlikely the two will reach a compromise.

The post conflates the outcome of an opinion poll of the general population with the beliefs of the Democrats and Republicans who will actually make big budget decisions. There is good reason to expect the professionals have more accurate expectations than a bunch of poll-taking amateurs. I wasn't saying that the politicians are more accurate than Intrade, I was saying they're more accurate than poll-takers. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of politics professionals use Intrade to estimate probabilities.