lessdazed comments on Yet another Sleeping Beauty - Less Wrong

-1 Post author: DanielLC 22 November 2011 05:00AM

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Comment author: lessdazed 22 November 2011 08:16:12AM 0 points [-]

I'd like to use the SSA

Cthulhu's woundings, why?

a simple modification...Thanks to this modification, she got the same answer as if she had used SIA.

Assume it's -40 degrees Celsius outside. Thanks to this assumption, it's also -40 degrees Fahrenheit, we got the same answer as if we were using Fahrenheit.

In any case, if it's an unlikely observation, it probably won't happen twice, so she's about twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.

If it's a likely observation, such as noting that she is awake, then she is twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.

Comment author: DanielLC 23 November 2011 01:24:00AM 0 points [-]

Cthulhu's woundings, why?

To show that it gives the same answers.

Thanks to this assumption ... we got the same answer as if we were using Fahrenheit.

I showed at the end that this assumption is, for all intents and purposes, always going to happen.

If it's a likely observation, such as noting that she is awake, then she is twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.

It's 100% either way. It's not twice as likely.

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