daenerys comments on Review of Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near' - Less Wrong
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In Little Science, Big Science Derek J de Solla Price does a great job talking about stagnation of exponential scientific growth curves. In general, an exponential growth curve must flatten at some point. He did things like look at the number of scientists in relation to the population. A quote:
It's been years since I read it, (and it's a good 50 years old) but I remember it was a good book, that was one of the founders of scientometrics. I would definitely recommend.