Vladimir_M comments on Review of Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near' - Less Wrong
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Comments (43)
Fair enough. "No meaningful progress" is an overstatement. But so is "advancing steadily": under any meaningful metric, 2011 cars represent much less progress over 1950s cars than the latter represented relative to the 1890s horse carriages or the early motor cars circa 1900.
And in any case, even steady advances would still be a counterexample to the supposed trend of exponential progress and accelerating returns.