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gwern comments on Intelligence Explosion analysis draft: How long before digital intelligence? - Less Wrong
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If we're estimating time to AI, aren't expert surveys of any interest? http://www.aleph.se/andart/archives/2011/04/when_will_we_get_our_robot_overlords.html
Also, thanks to HamletHenna for linking the hope function - I was going to, but then I thought 'I am the only one who seems to find it even a little bit interesting or enlightening; perhaps something is wrong with me'.