potato comments on (Subjective Bayesianism vs. Frequentism) VS. Formalism - Less Wrong

27 Post author: potato 26 November 2011 05:05AM

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Comment author: potato 27 November 2011 09:56:05PM 0 points [-]

Yes, we can use "probability is degree of belief" but we have to be very careful about this sort of word play, because what that really means is that "probability models degree of belief".

Comment author: Manfred 28 November 2011 04:45:57AM 0 points [-]

Probability doesn't come from attempting to model something out in the world. It comes from attempting to find a measure of degree of belief that's consistent with certain desiderata, like "you shouldn't believe both a thing and its opposite." So the phrase "probability models degree of belief" is false.

Comment author: potato 28 November 2011 11:25:05AM *  0 points [-]

You're riht, I mean to say "probability theory models theoretically optimal degree of belief updates, gven other degrees of belief". Or "probability theory models ideally rational degrees of belief."