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Manfred comments on (Subjective Bayesianism vs. Frequentism) VS. Formalism - Less Wrong
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Probability doesn't come from attempting to model something out in the world. It comes from attempting to find a measure of degree of belief that's consistent with certain desiderata, like "you shouldn't believe both a thing and its opposite." So the phrase "probability models degree of belief" is false.
You're riht, I mean to say "probability theory models theoretically optimal degree of belief updates, gven other degrees of belief". Or "probability theory models ideally rational degrees of belief."