MixedNuts comments on 5 Axioms of Decision Making - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Vaniver 01 December 2011 10:22PM

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Comment author: MixedNuts 01 December 2011 11:44:24PM 11 points [-]

I disagree. If one is not familiar with this opus, one shall have to expend more attention than would be suitable on matching the illustrations on the probability trees to their names and abbreviations.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 December 2011 04:23:43PM 6 points [-]

Pictures edited.

Comment author: Vaniver 02 December 2011 06:45:40AM 14 points [-]

Talk about inferential distance; for some reason it didn't even occur to me that people might not know their names (whereas I did think long and hard before going with that as my only example). I'll edit the pictures to include the names (tomorrow).

Comment author: prase 02 December 2011 11:13:33AM *  10 points [-]

it didn't even occur to me that people might not know their names

Seriously? I see these damned horses for the first time in life. Not only I don't know their names, but it is hard to distinguish them visually. And I put quite a big probability on the hypothesis that 95% of people whom I personally know are unfamiliar with this as well.

whereas I did think long and hard before going with that as my only example

Couldn't you go with apple, pizza, bicycle, broken watch, pen, or whatever sort of items whose names are known? It would perhaps be too ordinary, but your present choice really makes it harder.

Comment author: Kaj_Sotala 09 December 2011 05:41:39PM *  5 points [-]

And I put quite a big probability on the hypothesis that 95% of people whom I personally know are unfamiliar with this as well.

I didn't know them either, but this post was one of the last straws that broke the back of my resistance made me start watching the series.

(It's good, by the way!)

Comment author: Vaniver 03 December 2011 07:36:07PM 5 points [-]

Seriously?

Yes. I'm not sure why.

Couldn't you go with apple, pizza, bicycle, broken watch, pen, or whatever sort of items whose names are known? It would perhaps be too ordinary, but your present choice really makes it harder.

Future posts will not re-use this example. I wanted to use lots of pictures for this one to make sure the steps were clear, and found it easier to motivate myself to do that with ponies.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 02 December 2011 07:13:32PM 3 points [-]

How hard are they to distinguish visually? They are each dominated by a single (unique) color. Is my model of visual perception wrong?

Comment author: prase 02 December 2011 09:37:26PM *  1 point [-]

The colours are "similar", in that they are all pastel tones, and I have probably not good memory for colours. Now when I am looking on the ponies for the third or fourth time, I am starting to "feel the difference", but at the beginning, I saw six extremely similar ugly pictures.

My explanation probably isn't very good, but visual impressions are difficult to describe verbally.

Comment author: Bugmaster 02 December 2011 09:46:11PM 1 point [-]

Hmm, that's interesting, because I personally thought that the ponies were well designed. They each have a unique color scheme, and a distinct silhouette. Guess I was wrong, though.

Comment author: prase 03 December 2011 10:42:34AM 0 points [-]

I don't say they are not well designed. Perhaps this is the best they could do while maintaining their artistic style, or they didn't try to optimise distinctiveness in the first place.

Comment author: Morendil 02 December 2011 06:53:03PM 2 points [-]

Seconding prase: "Seriously? I see these damned horses for the first time in life. Not only I don't know their names, but it is hard to distinguish them visually."

Make that "most of these damned horses" and "almost for the first time". I have kids, and they watch TV, so I'm vaguely aware of these things in much the same way I'm vaguely aware of cars honking outside: it's a somewhat unwelcome but not actively unpleasant awareness.

(Also the MLP allusion joke has already been done here before. Without pictures, admittedly, but I'd still judge it a "once and only once" kind of joke.)

Comment author: fiddlemath 02 December 2011 04:55:43AM 3 points [-]

I agree. I'm halfway through, and I really wish I had a handy key of which initials go with which ponies - or just those initials next to every instance of every pony. right now, I have to track lots of extra details that have little bearing on the material.

Comment author: pedanterrific 02 December 2011 05:41:11AM 2 points [-]

TS - purple/purple, AJ - orange/yellow, PP - pink/pink,

RD - blue/rainbow, R - white/purple, FS - yellow/pink

Comment author: Cyan 02 December 2011 03:07:59AM 4 points [-]

Eh. I'm not familiar with this opus, and I managed.