prase comments on 5 Axioms of Decision Making - Less Wrong
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They publish probability of axioms of arithmetics being roughly 1 and probability of Collatz conjecture being 0.8, you see that the conjecture is logically equivalent to the axioms and thus that their odds are mutually inconsistent. You don't "know" more in the sense of having observed more evidence. (I'd agree that this is a tortured interpretation of Dutch booking, but it's probably what you get if you systematically distinguish external evidence from own reasoning.)