prase comments on 5 Axioms of Decision Making - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Vaniver 01 December 2011 10:22PM

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Comment author: prase 02 December 2011 05:02:23PM 4 points [-]

I'm pretty sure that a Dutch Book is only a Dutch Book if it's pure arbitrage- that is, you beat someone using only the odds they publish. If you know more than someone else and win a bet against them, that seems different.

They publish probability of axioms of arithmetics being roughly 1 and probability of Collatz conjecture being 0.8, you see that the conjecture is logically equivalent to the axioms and thus that their odds are mutually inconsistent. You don't "know" more in the sense of having observed more evidence. (I'd agree that this is a tortured interpretation of Dutch booking, but it's probably what you get if you systematically distinguish external evidence from own reasoning.)