TobyBartels comments on 5 Axioms of Decision Making - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Vaniver 01 December 2011 10:22PM

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Comment author: taw 02 December 2011 09:54:06AM *  -1 points [-]

You must be willing to assign a probability to quantify any uncertainty important to your decision. You must have consistent probabilities.

  • What's your probability of basic laws of mathematics being true?
  • What's your probability of Collatz conjecture being true?

If you answered 1 to the first, and anything but 0 or 1 to the second, you're inconsistent. If you're unwilling to answer the second, you just broke your axioms.

Comment author: TobyBartels 15 December 2011 05:01:40AM -1 points [-]

While this sort of thing is interesting, I really don't see its relevance to practical decision making methods as discussed in this post. In fact, the OP even has an escape clause ‘important to your decision’ that applies perfectly here. (The Collatz Conjecture is not important to your decision, almost always in the real world.)

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