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Thomas comments on A response to "Torture vs. Dustspeck": The Ones Who Walk Away From Omelas - Less Wrong
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You have 50 years of a horrible torture and then 50*3^^^3 years of a pleasant life with no dust speck.
OR
50*(3^^^3+1) years of a pleasant life with a dust speck every 50 years.
What would you take?
This analogy doesn't work, because if I had to choose between:
- 50 years of torture now, followed by 50*3^^^3 years of life
- 49 * 3^^^3 years now, followed by 100 years of torture
I'd also end up choosing the latter, though there's less life, and more torture -- just because the years of torture are further away.
So, you say, we are incapable to choose a better option for us. 50 years of torture plus 50*(3^^^3-1) years of a good life with no dust speck is a better then the second one, with a dust speck every 50 years and no torture - for 50 times 3^^^3 years?
We just can't/won't go for a better one?
Am pretty sure I didn't say we are "incapable" of anything, and I have to warn you I don't appreciate a tactic of putting words in my mouth: it's a berserk button for me. So please be careful about this.
But if you want me to say something using the word "incapable" in it, currently we're pretty incapable of understanding the scope of 3^^^3.
I would almost certainly take the latter. So would everyone I've ever known. What does that demonstrate?
I mean, it's also almost certainly true that after a year of horrible torture, if you offered me a choice between another 49 years of horrible torture followed by 3^^^3 years of pleasant life, or death, I would choose death. But again... so what?
So, you'd opt for the worse option, according to this list?
(nods) Likely, if I were somehow placed in a situation where I could make such a choice.
I mean, 50 years of horrible torture is scary as hell, and something I can just barely imagine. 3^^^3 years of pleasant life is so completely outside my experience that I can't even begin to imagine it. The odds that I would make any kind of sensible expected-utility calculation in that situation are basically zero... hell, I don't do all that well with real-life situations where I know that something mildly unpleasant now will bring me tangible benefits later.
Again: what does that demonstrate?
In a moment!
What about some other guy, where would you put him?
What about the case, where the 50 years of torture is in the middle? Or in the end?
I expect I would choose the torture-free option in all these cases, if I were somehow faced with the choice, for basically the same reason: 50 years of torture is scary, and 3^^^3 years is basically inconceivable.
I would like you to get to a point some time soon.