Rationality Quotes December 2011

Jayson_Virissimo

Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB.
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
Do not quote yourself.
Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB.
No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

I would point out that it is perfectly possible to be a worse predictor than a random or max-ent predictor; if all economics does is - per the quote - remove our (Marxist/Communist/socialist/Keynesian/mercantilist/Maoist/Catholic/...) delusions that we can improve on the normal workings of the economy, it will have done us a useful service indeed. Aside from the very simplest predictions relating to supply-and-demand, obviously.

would point out that it is perfectly possible to be a worse predictor than a random or max-ent predictor;

Point taken, but my question stands: how far are we from improving on max-ent predictions?

delusions that we can improve on the normal workings of the economy

Would you taboo "normal," please? I'm curious as to exactly what you mean.

3kilobug14y

I don't get your jump there - we don't need to be able to forecast weather to be able to build a roof to shield ourself from rain. The same way, even if economists have no ability to forecast the market, we may still be able to devise social rules to soften the negative consequences of a market crash. Or we may not, but it's a different issue. I also don't get what you call "normal workings" of the economy. Even most of the libertarian I know about still want to enforce and protect private property, using external force to do so. So they are already distorting the "normal working". If you want to use public force to ban stealing, then you're already thinking you can improve on the "normal workings" of the economy.

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Rationality Quotes December 2011

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Rationality Quotes December 2011

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