would point out that it is perfectly possible to be a worse predictor than a random or max-ent predictor;
Point taken, but my question stands: how far are we from improving on max-ent predictions?
delusions that we can improve on the normal workings of the economy
Would you taboo "normal," please? I'm curious as to exactly what you mean.
Point taken, but my question stands: how far are we from improving on max-ent predictions?
I have no idea. To a considerable extent, economics shouldn't be able to make many good predictions by the nature of the material; see efficient markets and "Markets are Anti-Inductive".
I'm curious as to exactly what you mean.
The set of idiosyncratic norms and traditions developed over centuries by small groups solving economic problems, which frequently maximize value even while appearing either impossible or arbitrary; this is an old vein of liberta...
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