matt comments on Rationality Quotes December 2011 - Less Wrong

4 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 December 2011 06:01AM

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Comment author: matt 07 December 2011 12:22:32AM *  2 points [-]

In the absence of observations of future events, observation of the past performance of your model is advisable (and rare). If your confidence in the current accuracy of your model is much higher than the past performance of your models... you may be optimizing for something other than accuracy.

Comment author: dlthomas 07 December 2011 12:27:32AM 0 points [-]

observation of the past performance of your model is advisable

Agreed, and in particular on data you did not consider in formulating it.

(and rare).

Citation needed.

Comment author: matt 07 December 2011 03:45:18AM 1 point [-]

Your criticism is accepted. For my curiosity: which groups have you observed embracing the practice of introducing data on past model performance when presenting a new model? I failed to provide a source, but is it your impression that this isn't an area in which most people perform poorly

Comment author: dlthomas 07 December 2011 06:21:57AM 0 points [-]

I don't know that I've observed anyone making explicit practice of it out of a formal setting.