Rationality Quotes December 2011

4 Post author: Jayson_Virissimo 02 December 2011 06:01AM

Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:

  • Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately.  (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments.  If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
  • Do not quote yourself.
  • Do not quote comments/posts on LW/OB.
  • No more than 5 quotes per person per monthly thread, please.

Comments (577)

Comment author: arundelo 28 December 2011 09:01:02PM *  0 points [-]

Whenever I am confronted with a major decision like this, I think "what would the protagonist in a sci-book do?"

-- Salman Khan

(Edit: Pretty sure he means "sci-fi book".)

Comment author: Multiheaded 26 December 2011 12:49:50PM 4 points [-]

(I can't give the exact quote, as it's hearsay, and I'm translating it back into English from Russian)

During WW2, British aircraft engineers had to reach a compromise between an airplane's structural durability and other uses of weight such as armor, defensive armament, etc. The odds of losing a bomber due to its structure falling apart were much less than those of it simply being shot down; 1:10000 and 1:20 respectively. Yet when the designers proposed sacrificing some structural integrity to improve the bomber's armor plating or machineguns, the pilots were adamant. They hated the thought of their plane breaking up on its own so much that they passed up the opportunity to reduce a MUCH more likely risk.

(I suspect that the bias here had to do with risks somewhat dependent on the subject seeming much more controllable and less abhorrent).

  • Structures: Or Why Things Don't Fall Down, by J. E. Gordon
Comment author: lukeprog 24 December 2011 04:37:35PM *  8 points [-]

I have a lot of beliefs, and I live by none of them. That's just the way I am. They're just my beliefs, I just like believing them. I like that part.

They're my little "believees," they make me feel good about who I am. But if they get in the way of a thing I want or I want to jack off or something, I fuckin' do that.

Louis C.K., Live at the Beacon Theater

Comment author: arundelo 28 December 2011 09:02:44PM 0 points [-]

You beat me to it! -- I thought when I watched it that this bit would make a good rationality quote.

Comment author: [deleted] 24 December 2011 05:05:23PM *  0 points [-]

I can't explain why his attitude/distribution model/whatever for that concert makes so much goddamn sense, but it does.

Comment author: lukeprog 24 December 2011 09:22:35PM 0 points [-]

I like Louis C.K. Many comedians tend to be genuine, but he is consistently so.

Comment author: Keratin 24 December 2011 06:33:23AM *  7 points [-]

"'...You are now nearly at childhood's end; you are ready for the truth's weight, to bear it. The truth is that the heroism of your childhood entertainments was not true valor. It was theater. The grand gesture, the moment of choice, the mortal danger, the external foe, the climactic battle whose outcomes resolve all-- all designed to appear heroic, to excite and gratify an audience. An audience.' He made a gesture I can't describe: 'Gentlemen, welcome to the world of reality-- there is no audience. No one to applaud, to admire. No one to see you. Do you understand? Here is the truth-- actual heroism receives no ovation, entertains no one. No one queues up to see it. No one is interested.'"

"'Routine, repetition, tedium, monotony, ephemeracy, inconsquence, abstraction, disorder, boredom, angst, ennui-- these are the true hero's enemies, and make no mistake, they are fearsome indeed. For they are real.'"

David Foster Wallace, The Pale King, p. 232

Comment author: jcb 23 December 2011 01:56:34AM *  4 points [-]

“The only position that leaves me with no cognitive dissonance is atheism. It is not a creed. Death is certain, replacing both the siren-song of Paradise and the dread of Hell. Life on this earth, with all its mystery and beauty and pain, is then to be lived far more intensely: we stumble and get up, we are sad, confident, insecure, feel loneliness and joy and love. There is nothing more; but I want nothing more."

--Christopher Hitchens (Dec. 15 December 2011) The Portable Atheist: Essential Readings for the Non-believer

Comment author: CharlieSheen 19 December 2011 01:18:49PM -2 points [-]

The social sciences are largely hokum.

--Sheldon Cooper, fictional character from the Big Bang Theory

Comment author: [deleted] 19 December 2011 05:40:59PM 4 points [-]

While I kind-of agree, quoting that out of context without an explanation is mere gratuitous name-calling IMO, rather than a “Rationality Quote”.

Comment author: CharlieSheen 23 December 2011 01:03:36PM *  3 points [-]

Consider some of the other rationality quotes in previous threads. I am simply following established precedences.

Comment author: GLaDOS 18 December 2011 03:15:26PM 8 points [-]

"Well, if it were true, how would the world look different from what we see around us?"

--Gregory Cochran

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 16 December 2011 11:33:56PM *  4 points [-]

At some point, our society decided with great certainty that the Earth is a sphere and, consequently, that further consideration is unnecessary and anyone holding an opposing viewpoint is unworthy of debate.

-- Daniel Shelton, re-founder of the Flat Earth Society

(We're looking for good illustrations of motivated uncertainty, insistence that no conclusion can be drawn from overwhelming data. Shelton may not be a good example because he is probably a deliberate troll who does not really believe the Earth is flat. Also, religious examples are excluded, but examples from e.g. astrology and homeopathy would not be. Daily-life examples are best.)

Comment author: thomblake 20 December 2011 09:55:23PM *  0 points [-]

Daily-life examples are best.

Is this different from the colloquial "But there's still a chance" or "But you can't be sure"?

Comment author: cousin_it 15 December 2011 04:41:13PM 7 points [-]

If wanting to be right is wrong, I don't want to be right.

-- Steven Kaas

Comment author: RobinZ 15 December 2011 06:28:25PM 2 points [-]

Old joke, but a good one.

Comment author: gwern 14 December 2011 04:52:08PM *  5 points [-]

"One should forgive one's enemies, but not before they are hanged."

--Heinrich Heine; an early, little-known German contribution to the Evil Overlord List.

Comment author: hairyfigment 14 December 2011 12:14:02AM 2 points [-]

After describing an odd subjective experience:

If the rationalist reader has had the quite super-Stylite patience to read to this point, he will surely now at last throw down the book with an ethically justifiable curse.

Yet I beg him to believe that there is a shade of difference between me and a paradox-monger. I am not playing with words -- Lord knows how I wish I could! I find that they play with me! -- I am honestly and soberly trying to set down that which I know, that which I know better than I know anything else in the world, that which so transcends and excels all other experience that I am all on fire to proclaim it.

Yet I fail utterly. I have given my life to the study of the English language; I am supposed by my flatterers to have some little facility of expression, especially, one may agree, in conveying the extremes of thought of all kinds. Yet here I want to burn down the Universe for lack of a language.

-- Aleister Crowley here

Comment author: Morendil 13 December 2011 09:33:11AM 5 points [-]

I should not choose long, hard words just to make other persons think that I know a lot. I should try to make my thoughts clear; if they are clear and right, then other persons can judge my work as it ought to be judged.

-- Guy Steele, Growing a Language (pdf)

Comment author: thelittledoctor 12 December 2011 03:22:29AM 7 points [-]

There is a thing called knowledge of the world, which people do not have until they are middle-aged. It is something which cannot be taught to younger people, because it is not logical and does not obey laws which are constant. It has no rules. Only, in the long years which bring women to the middle of life, a sense of balance develops. You can't teach a baby to walk by explaining the matter to her logically -- she has to learn the strange poise of walking by experience. In some way like that, you cannot teach a young woman to have knowledge of the world. She has to be left to the experience of the years. And then, when she is beginning to hate her used body, she suddenly finds that she can do it. She can go on living -- not by principle, not by deduction, not by knowledge of good and evil, but simply by a peculiar and shifting sense of balance which defies each of these things often. She no longer hopes to live by seeking the truth -- if women ever do hope this -- but continues henceforth under the guidance of a seventh sense. Balance was the sixth sense, which she won when she first learned to walk, and now she has the seventh one -- knowledge of the world.

The slow discovery of the seventh sense, by which both men and women contrive to ride the waves of a world in which there is war, adultery, compromise, fear, stultification and hypocrisy -- this discovery is not a matter for triumph. The baby, perhaps, cries out triumphantly: I have balance! But the seventh sense is recognized without a cry. We only carry on with our famous knowledge of the world, riding the queer waves in a habitual, petrifying way, because we have reached a stage of deadlock in which we can think of nothing else to do.

And at this stage we begin to forget that there ever was a time when we lacked the seventh sense. We begin to forget, as we go stolidly balancing along, that there could have been a time when we were young bodies flaming with the impetus of life. It is hardly consoling to remember such a feeling, and so it deadens in our minds.

But there was a time when each of us stood naked before the world, confronting life as a serious problem with which we were intimately and passionately concerned. There was a time when it was of vital interest to us to find out whether there was a God or not. Obviously the existence or otherwise of a future life must be of the very first importance to somebody who is going to live her present one, because her manner of living it must hinge on the problem. There was a time when Free Love versus Catholic Morality was a question of as much importance to our hot bodies as if a pistol had been clapped to our heads.

Further back, there were times when we wondered with all our souls what the world was, what love was, what we were ourselves.

All these problems and feelings fade away when we get the seventh sense. Middle-aged people can balance between believing in God and breaking all the commandments, without difficulty. The seventh sense, indeed, slowly kills all the other ones, so that at last there is no trouble about the commandments. We cannot see any more, or feel, or hear about them. The bodies which we loved, the truths which we sought, the Gods whom we questioned: we are deaf and blind to them now, safely and automatically balancing along toward the inevitable grave, under the protection of our last sense. "Thank God for the aged", sings the poet:

Thank God for the aged And for age itself, and illness and the grave. When we are old and ill, and particularly in the coffin, It is no trouble to behave.

-T.H. White, in The Once And Future King (book III, Le Chevalier Mal Fet)

Comment author: Nisan 15 December 2011 06:51:26PM 1 point [-]

Related: This comment by Mitchell Porter.

Comment author: thomblake 14 December 2011 05:37:43PM 1 point [-]

long quote is long.

Comment author: Manfred 12 December 2011 03:20:14PM *  5 points [-]

It is something which cannot be taught to younger people, because it is not logical and does not obey laws which are constant.

We have never yet found a single illogical thing. Things, by and large, are pretty ordinary. If something is hard to teach and hard to learn, it's more likely that humans just suck at teaching and learning it. Alternately, some of this stuff sounds like it would really suck to learn, so active avoidance could be part of it too.

Really well written though :D

Comment author: thelittledoctor 13 December 2011 03:17:06AM 5 points [-]

Of course. What he's describing isn't rationality, it's dysrationalia - and especially the ability to compartmentalize. The rational ones in this passage are the young, who are "intimately and passionately concerned" with the existence of God, Free Love versus Catholic Morality, and so on. More than anything I see this quote as a caution against losing the fire in your belly.

Comment author: Oscar_Cunningham 12 December 2011 05:42:27PM *  4 points [-]

Alternately, some of this stuff sounds like it would really suck to learn, so active avoidance could be part of it too.

That's the point. The passage is being sarcastic.

Comment author: Stabilizer 11 December 2011 08:31:27PM 7 points [-]

"Numbers---you know? The kind with decimals in them?"

--Max Tegmark, asking for some quantitative information in a vague lecture.

Comment author: Thomas 11 December 2011 03:35:40PM 13 points [-]

Remember — there is a correlation between correlation and causation.

  • ChaosRobie on Reddit
Comment author: Alejandro1 11 December 2011 10:02:15PM 11 points [-]

More like a causation, I'd say: causation causes correlation.

Comment author: FAWS 13 December 2011 12:27:44PM 3 points [-]

But correlation only correlates with causation.

Comment author: Psy-Kosh 17 December 2011 04:52:17AM 15 points [-]

The way I like to put it is this: "correlation correlates with causation because causation causes correlation." :)

Comment author: Bugmaster 17 December 2011 05:07:42AM 2 points [-]

I believe that both of them also sell sea shells by the sea shore :-)

Comment author: Stabilizer 10 December 2011 12:27:39AM 3 points [-]

Quantum phenomena do not occur in a Hilbert space. They occur in a laboratory.

--Asher Peres

Comment author: spriteless 11 December 2011 01:15:37AM 1 point [-]

So is this to differentiate the n-dimensional calculus used to model quantum phenomena from the reality of a laboratory?

Comment author: Stabilizer 11 December 2011 02:49:39AM 3 points [-]

In some sense, yes. Peres has long been of the view that instead of looking to some kind of 'philosophical interpretation' of what quantum mechanics is, we need to see what quantum mechanics tells us about the experiments we perform. And that questions such 'what quantum mechanics means' makes sense only if they tell us something about the outcome of an experiment.

More broadly, I put that quote here to illustrate the difference between map and territory.

Comment author: kateblu 09 December 2011 03:42:02AM 15 points [-]

"If a theory has a lot of parameters, you adjust their values to fit a lot of data, and your theory is not really predicting those things, just accommodating them. Scientists use words like “curve fitting” and “fudge factors” to describe that sort of activity. On the other hand, if a theory has just a few parameters but applies to a lot of data, it has real power. You can use a small subset of the measurements to fix the parameters; then all other measurements are uniquely predicted. " Frank Wilczek

Comment author: RichardKennaway 09 December 2011 10:25:17AM 17 points [-]

"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk."

John von Neumann

Comment author: rmurf 08 December 2011 10:59:57PM 8 points [-]

“If you follow the ways in which you were trained, which you may have inherited, for no other reason than this, you are illogical.”

--Jalaluddin Rumi

Comment author: ChristianKl 04 January 2013 02:03:11AM 0 points [-]

Maybe you are irrational. There's nothing illogical about the process.

Comment author: fortyeridania 19 December 2011 03:22:13PM 1 point [-]

But changing one's behavior often involves switching costs. Going with the flow avoids these costs. Since the benefits from switching are sometimes lower than the costs of switching (including the effort spent estimating the costs and benefits!), going with the flow is sometimes net-beneficial.

Example: Aren't heuristics often adaptive, even in the modern world?

Comment author: TimS 19 December 2011 03:42:32PM -1 points [-]

Is being satisfied in a local optima rational? A rationalist should recognize that there are costs to change and they might outweigh benefits, but being better at achieving goals is the point.

Comment author: fortyeridania 19 December 2011 04:01:09PM 1 point [-]

That is true, people should recognize that. In fact, I don't think I disagree with anything you've said. But I think the wording of the quotation made it sound as though following pre-established behavioral patterns were always suboptimal. Surely that claim is false?

Comment author: TimS 19 December 2011 06:28:09PM *  1 point [-]

It's an interesting empirical question how much of what we do is sub-optimal. I'm sure it is larger than what most people would guess. For example, I expect that most LWers would agree that unwritten social norms, especially politeness norms, are optimized for status showing, not achievement of material goals.

for no other reason than this

That part of the quote seems to limit the applicable scope. I read it as rejection of "tradition" as a stand-alone justification. That is, we don't drive on the right side of the street in the US by "tradition," but based on Schelling point type analysis.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 20 December 2011 05:39:37AM 1 point [-]

It's an interesting empirical question how much of what we do is sub-optimal.

Sub-optimal relative to what? To what a hypothetical God/AI with unlimited computing power would recommend? Well, we don't have access to that kind of computing power.

I read it as rejection of "tradition" as a stand-alone justification.

As Nick Szabo points out in this essay, tradition often contains wisdom that would be computationally infeasible recover from first principals. So yes, all other things being equal, you should accept "tradition" as a stand-alone justification. If all other things aren't equal, then you should treat the existence of the tradition as evidence to be incorporated like other.

Comment author: Dar_Veter 20 December 2011 07:26:55PM -1 points [-]

As Nick Szabo points out in this essay, tradition often contains wisdom

The problem is that there is no such thing as "tradition". In every society bigger than village there are numerous, mostly incompatible traditions. Even in one family often happens that, if you follow grandmother's way, you anger the other one.

Comment author: TimS 20 December 2011 04:55:17PM 0 points [-]

Thanks for the link to that interesting essay. It seems to rely on the possibility of inter-subjective truths (i.e. truths that should persuade) that are not objective (i.e. based on empirical results). Basically, I don't believe in inter-subjective truths of that kind because they are capable of proving too much. For example, "God exists" is a plausible candidate for inter-subjective truth, but there are empirical things I would expect in a world where God exists that do not appear to be present. In short, there seems to be no limit to what can be labeled inter-subjective, non-objective truth.

Most small deviations, and practically all "radical" deviations [in cultural beliefs], result in the equivalent of death for the organism: a mass breakdown of civilization which can include genocide, mass poverty, starvation, plagues, and, perhaps most commonly and importantly, highly unsatisying, painful, or self-destructive individual life choices.

This asserted fragility of society is inconsistent with historical evidence. You can pick just about any moral taboo (E.g. human sacrifice or incest) and find a society that violated it but continued on, and fell for reasons independent of the violation of the moral taboo. For example, Nazi Germany didn't lose WWII because they were immoral jerkwads. Germany lost WWII because it picked a fight with a more powerful opponent (who happened to also be an immoral jerkwad).

Comment author: Emile 21 December 2011 09:56:38AM 0 points [-]

the possibility of inter-subjective truths (i.e. truths that should persuade)

I don't think "truths that should persuade" is a good definition of what Szabo (or others) mean by "inter-subjective truths".

Wikipedia is not very helpful, but I understand it more as "things whose truth-value depends of how many people believe in them", i.e. "children are expected to obey their parents", "you should drive on the left side of the road", etc.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 21 December 2011 05:25:33AM 2 points [-]

Basically, I don't believe in inter-subjective truths of that kind because they are capable of proving too much.

Only if you think of them as incontrovertible evidence, rather than merely another type of evidence to be incorporated.

Comment author: TimS 21 December 2011 03:31:01PM *  0 points [-]

Ok, it's clear that I don't understand what is meant by the concept of "inter-subjective truth." Why use the word truth? Especially when there is the perfectly appropriate word "evidence" for the concept of believing based on the fact that others believe.

Evidence and truth are not pointing to similar concepts at all. Something can be true even if I have no evidence to believe it to be so. Contrarily, I can have evidence in support of a belief that is, in fact, false.

Comment author: Dar_Veter 20 December 2011 07:37:54PM -1 points [-]

Thanks for the link to that interesting essay.

Would be more interesting had author defined what he means by "highly evolved tradition" and added some real world examples.

Most small deviations, and practically all "radical" deviations [in cultural beliefs], result in the equivalent of death for the organism: a mass breakdown of civilization which can include genocide, mass poverty, starvation, plagues, and, perhaps most commonly and importantly, highly unsatisying, painful, or self-destructive individual life choices.

Genocide is usually (and traditionally) fate of traditional society that meets more modern one. And as for mass poverty, starvation and plagues, these were traditional part of life for all recorded history and were abolished by modernity. I'm afraid the author disproves his own thesis...

Comment author: gwern 08 December 2011 03:59:31AM 23 points [-]

'Tell me one last thing,' said Harry. 'Is this real? Or has this been happening inside my head?'

Dumbledore beamed at him, and his voice sounded loud and strong in Harry's ears even though the bright mist was descending again, obscuring his figure.

'Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?'

― J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

Comment author: PhilGoetz 31 December 2011 09:21:38PM -1 points [-]

'Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?'

Because... it's not real?

Just sayin'.

Comment author: [deleted] 20 November 2012 10:31:33AM 6 points [-]

What Harry should've asked isn't where the experience was taking place but whether the Dumbledore he was talking to was the model of Dumbledore in his head, which only knows things that Harry knows, or enough of the actual Dumbledore to know things that Harry doesn't know. That is, what's relevant isn't the location of the experience but the source of the information feeding into that experience. That would also be the relevant criterion for distinguishing between, for example, a message from God and a hallucination.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 01 January 2012 07:26:39PM 4 points [-]

That's like saying is depression real, or is it just happening inside the patient's head?

The correct answer is yes and yes.

Comment author: wedrifid 31 December 2011 10:06:03PM *  0 points [-]

'Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?'

Because... it's not real?

Within the perspective of a fantasy world it certainly can be. It isn't just Harry imagining things. Magic is involved.

Comment author: kateblu 09 December 2011 03:27:31AM 1 point [-]

I held off reading this series (my children being in their 30s and having no grandchildren) until several months ago when I realized that just because I didn't watch television or go to many movies, I should not be totally left out of modern culture. And so I started the first year. I could not put these books down and more or less inhaled all seven as fast as I could. What an excellent choice of quotations for this thread.

Comment author: JQuinton 07 December 2011 09:17:18PM 3 points [-]

“If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts, he shall end in certainties.” - Sir Francis Bacon

Comment author: iwdw 07 December 2011 06:32:57PM *  -1 points [-]

… every culture in history, in every time and every place, has operated from the assumption that it had it 95% correct and that the other 5% would arrive in five years’ time! All were wrong! All were wrong, and we gaze back at their naivety with a faint sense of our own superiority.

-- Terence McKenna, Culture and Ideology are Not Your Friends

Comment author: ChristianKl 04 January 2013 03:57:45PM 0 points [-]

If you would ask members of the present US culture whether the legal way gays are treated is optimal I doubt you will get that answer.

One the one hand you have people who disagree with state laws that allow homosexual marriage. Some of them disagree with laws that forbid discrimination. On the other hand you do have people who would want equal marriage rights for homosexuals.

Neither side believes that their position will get cultural consensus in five years.

Comment author: tut 12 December 2011 05:05:41PM 15 points [-]

… every culture in history, in every time and every place ...

We should implement a filter that changes the above phrase to "The USA in the 1950s". Because then the statements that include the phrase would generally become true.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 13 December 2011 06:18:10AM 3 points [-]

I think you're being a little to harsh on the OC. You can at least use the phrase "Western Culture in the 20th century". (;

Comment author: wedrifid 13 December 2011 09:36:25AM 1 point [-]

You can delete the duplicate comments now that they are retracted.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 December 2011 07:35:06PM *  5 points [-]

every culture in history, in every time and every place, has operated from the assumption that it had it 95% correct and that the other 5% would arrive in five years’ time!

Don't believe it.

Cultures, to the best of my knowledge, differ somewhat significantly with respect to their attitude to moral and ideological progress or decline. It doesn't even seem particularly likely that every culture in history has even had an attitude such that it can be said to be operation with an assumption one way or the other.

Comment author: Nornagest 07 December 2011 07:05:48PM *  12 points [-]

I don't really disagree with the point he's trying to make there, and if we restrict ourselves to talking about post-Enlightenment Western cultures the argument might be largely accurate; but over all cultures in all times and places he's simply wrong.

It's actually fairly unusual for a culture to be consistently forward-looking at all, let alone to assume that the solutions to all its problems and the answers to all its open questions will arrive in a few years or decades. Most seem to have assumed that the present world's unusually debased and that things will only get worse, usually culminating in some sort of cataclysm; compare Hesiod's Ages of Man, the Kali Yuga, et cetera. This sort of thing might seem like a reactionary fantasy to us here and now, but that or a cyclical viewpoint or some combination are part of the bedrock of myth in essentially all the traditional cultures I know anything about.

Comment author: Raemon 07 December 2011 02:52:09PM 0 points [-]

"Is there NOTHING political parties can work on together? Can't each side shift at least some of their focus towards goals they have more or less in COMMON with the other side rather than zeroing in on what they think their opponents are wrong about?"

"But they're wrong about EVERYTHING!"

"Well, fixate on whatever it is they're least wrong about, then."

Comment author: TheOtherDave 07 December 2011 04:29:56PM 3 points [-]

This strikes me as dreadful advice on pretty much all fronts that matter.

To the extent that I want to improve my status, I want to focus on the stuff my opposition is least compelling about. (It would be nice if this were also the stuff they were most wrong about, but that ain't necessarily so. That said, it's unlikely to be what they are least wrong about.)

To the extent that I want to solve important problems, I want to focus on problems I consider important, regardless of whether the opposition agrees with me or not.

Focusing on what they are least wrong about only makes sense if what I want is to maximize cooperation. This can be a good idea if cooperation is a viable intermediate goal to something else, which is often true, but in the situation implied by this example doesn't seem likely.

Comment author: hairyfigment 14 December 2011 12:37:38AM 0 points [-]

Excellent points. On the other hand, cooperation seems like a good way to help your opponents learn about you and see you as an ally in at least one community. Depending on what you want, this may be at least 34% of the battle.

Comment author: Raemon 07 December 2011 05:02:02PM *  1 point [-]

First of, 90% of the reason I posted this was become it ended with "whatever they're least wrong about." I do not think it necessarily stands up to intense scrutiny.

That said, cooperation is only valuable as an intermediate goal, yes, but I think it's a pretty damn important intermediate goal. If both sides are defecting, nothing gets done. Don't forget your most important goals, but go for them strategically in a way that doesn't burn all your good will.

Comment author: kateblu 07 December 2011 12:44:45PM 2 points [-]

Seeing how individual decisions are rational within the bounds of the information available does not provide an excuse for narrow-minded behavior. It provides an understanding of why that behavior arises. Within the bounds of what a person in that part of the system can see and know, the behavior is reasonable. Taking out one individual from a position of bounded rationality and putting in another person is not likely to make much difference. Blaming the individual rarely helps create a more desirable outcome. – Donella H Meadows

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 08 December 2011 02:09:43AM 1 point [-]

Blaming the individual rarely helps create a more desirable outcome.

Blaming individuals for their narrow-minded behavior is one way to encourage less narrow-minded behavior.

Comment author: Alejandro1 06 December 2011 09:10:10PM 54 points [-]

On the difficulties of correctly fine-tuning your signaling:

I once expressed mild surprise at the presence of a garden gnome in an upper-middle-class garden …. The owner of the garden explained that the gnome was “ironic”. I asked him, with apologies for my ignorance, how one could tell that his garden gnome was supposed to be an ironic statement, as opposed to, you know, just a gnome. He rather sniffily replied that I only had to look at the rest of the garden for it to be obvious that the gnome was a tounge-in-cheek joke.

But surely, I persisted, garden gnomes are always something of a joke, in any garden—I mean, no-one actually takes them seriously or regards them as works of art. His response was rather rambling and confused (not to mention somewhat huffy), but the gist seemed to be that while the lower classes saw gnomes as intrinsically amusing, his gnome was amusing only because of its incongruous appearance in a “smart” garden. In other words, council-house gnomes were a joke, but his gnome was a joke about council-house tastes, effectively a joke about class….

The man’s reaction to my questions clearly defined him as upper-middle, rather than upper class. In fact, his pointing out that the gnome I had noticed was “ironic” had already demoted him by half a class from my original assessment. A genuine member of the upper classes would either have admitted to a passion for garden gnomes … or said something like “Ah yes, my gnome. I’m very fond of my gnome.” and left me to draw my own conclusions.

Kate Fox, Watching the English (quoted here).

Comment author: Multiheaded 19 May 2013 01:53:50PM *  3 points [-]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U_and_non-U_English

Amusing illustration through a 1950s sociolinguistic study.

(Damn, I swear there was a far longer discussion on signaling and countersignaling around here, can't find it.)

Comment author: Alejandro1 19 May 2013 02:57:46PM *  0 points [-]

Yes, many of those words and their role as class shibboleths are discussed in Fox's book as well. IIRC, according to her in some cases there are three levels; either three different words for one thing used in lower, middle and upper classes, or (matching the counter-signaling in the gnome story) the same word being used in the lowermost and the uppermost classes.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 20 December 2011 12:44:16AM 3 points [-]

Out of interest, how does this read from a non-uk perspective?

Comment author: JoshuaZ 20 December 2011 02:03:15AM 1 point [-]

The degree of class issues isn't as conscious in the US (although by many metrics there's actually less class mobility in the US) but it still comes across as both funny and insightful.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 20 December 2011 02:28:35AM 2 points [-]

Someone, (whose identity I can't recall, some commentator or comedian) said that the British have class in the same way Americans have race.

Not sure how true that is, but a middle class Indian person probably has more in common with a middle class white person in the UK.

Comment author: Prismattic 20 December 2011 03:22:52AM 2 points [-]

For a historical perspective, take a look at John C. Calhoun's statements on the need for racial hierarchy precisely to avoid the rise of class divisions among white Americans.

Comment author: arundelo 20 December 2011 01:35:55AM 3 points [-]

I'm American and I thought it was quite funny.

Comment author: FiftyTwo 20 December 2011 02:22:43AM 1 point [-]

Funny in abstract or funny as in hauntingly familiar? ;)

Comment author: arundelo 20 December 2011 02:37:29AM *  2 points [-]

Familiar -- but a little bit of both. It's a commonplace that English/British society is classful in a way that American society is not. That may well be true (I'm not qualified to judge), but America definitely has its own class distinctions. I would have trouble, though, putting them on a "lower, middle, upper-middle, upper"-type scale.

On the other hand, I guess the story struck me mainly as an example of someone using irony as a personality statement, which can be done without reference to class. Just today when I was at the store I was idly playing with the idea of buying a Hello Kitty iPhone cover. (I am a 38-year-old male.)

Edit: I can't think of an American analog of the garden gnome (we have them over here, but if they're as fraught as they are over the pond it's gone over my head), but when I try to think of a home-and-garden decoration that I would only display for irony (or maybe if a dear friend gave it to me), I think of a Thomas Kinkade painting.

Comment author: Pfft 16 December 2011 12:02:37AM *  3 points [-]

Maybe the story should be captioned "on the ease of fine-tuned signaling"? After all, the gnome-owner very effectively did communicate his class. On the other hand, deceiving people about your class is hard. But it's hard partly because there are so many way for people to send credible signals, so an absence of signaling becomes evidence on its own.

Comment author: Alejandro1 16 December 2011 04:16:42PM 8 points [-]

Hmm, what I had in mind when I wrote the caption was something like this:

The man's social model had three classes: lower class (owns gnomes non-ironically), middle class (would never own a gnome), upper class (can own a gnome "ironically" as a joke on low-class tastes), and he aimed for signalling upper-class status. He failed at fine-tuned signalling because he did not realize that his "upper class" behavior is actually upper-middle; true upper classes are allowed to own gnomes and genuinely like them, and don't need to defensively plead irony because they have no lingering anxiety about being confused with lower classes.

Comment author: Pfft 21 December 2011 05:30:10AM 5 points [-]

But how do we know that he aimed at signalling upper-class membership?

The alternative I'm proposing is that middle-class people will not try to deceive others about their social position (because that would never work in the long run), but they are adopting lots of signalling about their true position, in order to not get mistakenly perceived as being lower than their true position during short encounters.

I think this is consistent with common folk-wisdom about classes. I have often heard claimed that the primary concern of the lower-middle class is to distinguish themselves from working class. I have never heard it claimed that their primary concern is to pass as middle-middle class.

Comment author: RichardKennaway 12 December 2011 02:23:21PM 16 points [-]
Comment author: Nominull 07 December 2011 11:48:59PM 28 points [-]

Perhaps he's ultra-high-class, and is only defending the object-level irony of his garden gnome ironically.

Comment author: Teal_Thanatos 07 December 2011 11:26:57PM 13 points [-]

I upvoted this half because I laughed and half because I now want a gnome.

Comment author: Bugmaster 06 December 2011 09:44:42PM 24 points [-]

Ah yes, my gnome. I’m very fond of my gnome.

Oh I am so getting my own gnome, just so that I can use that phrase on people.

Comment author: Bugmaster 06 December 2011 07:17:46PM 20 points [-]

-- You can look at the stars and say "they sure are pretty" without having to calculate how many light-years away each one is.
-- Not if you want to get to them someday.

-- Questionable Content #2072

Comment author: Raemon 06 December 2011 09:26:49PM 0 points [-]

Saw this today, and wanted to yell at Marigold.

Comment author: kpreid 08 December 2011 03:28:21PM 2 points [-]

Why?

Sure, discounting the value of understanding is bad, but so is the Straw-Vulcan excessive attention to detail irrelevant to the current situation.

Comment author: Desrtopa 12 December 2011 03:17:24PM 1 point [-]

Well, flippantly trivializing other people's passions in conversation with them is generally assholish behavior.

Besides which, glass houses, unless she's dying to be asked why keeping up with her guild raids in World of Warcraft is so important.

Comment author: Alerik 06 December 2011 05:28:36PM 13 points [-]

“To see is to forget the name of the thing one sees.” ― Paul Valéry

Comment author: Username 19 December 2011 06:23:58AM *  1 point [-]

I occasionally do this as a routine for meditation/reflection/expanding perspective/entertainment/not sure what label to use, and I recommend it because I think members of the community will be able to do it.

I basically go outside and walk around looking around at trees the sidewalk and grass and trying to disassociate what I'm seeing from any notions of 'tree' or 'grass' object classes. Once I can get those I can usually extend it to everything in my perception. A sort of de-object-ification, trying to hold in my mind the notion that there are no boundaries between one thing and the next, and that 'thing' itself is a fundamentally false concept. If you read HPMOR, it's Harry's thought processes when he attempts partial transfiguration.

The effect is somewhat of an exhilarating experience of stepping out of the system and seeing it for what it is, and a peaceful intimate connection with the air around you, realizing that there really is no boundary between self and the world.

If I can point to anything similar, it would be Jill Bolte Taylor's description of her stroke, and drug experiences I've had recounted to me, though I don't have personal experience in either area.

Comment author: Grognor 17 December 2011 05:19:00PM 0 points [-]

Could someone offer an explanation for this quote?

Comment author: TheOtherDave 17 December 2011 05:35:27PM 5 points [-]

My interpretation: humans have a tendency, upon creating a node in their minds that represents a given object (or event, or class of object, or class of events, or other representable thing), to thereafter stop paying much attention to the object (or whatever) itself. For example, I've seen a U.S.quarter thousands of times, but I would have a very hard time drawing one from memory, or even selecting the correct face from a set of plausible alternatives, because I really don't pay attention to what a quarter looks like... I merely examine the object for long enough to identify it as a quarter, and then I pay attention to other things instead.

One way of describing this behavior on my part is to say that, upon "remembering the name" of the thing I'm seeing (that is, on identifying it as a quarter) I give up actually "seeing" it (that is, actually attending to the particulars of the thing).

And so Paul observes that, by contrast, if I am to actually "see," I must in so doing suppress the act of "remembering the name."

Comment author: David_Gerard 20 December 2011 12:18:03PM 2 points [-]
Comment author: [deleted] 06 December 2011 06:34:25AM 13 points [-]

Rejecting all organs of information therefore but my senses, I rid myself of the Pyrrhonisms with which an indulgence in speculations hyperphysical and antiphysical so uselessly occupy and disquiet the mind. A single sense may indeed be sometimes decieved, but rarely: and never all our senses together, with their faculty of reasoning. They evidence realities; and there are enough of these for all the purposes of life, without plunging into the fathomless abyss of dreams and phantasms. I am satisfied, and sufficiently occupied with the things which are, without tormenting or troubling myself about those which may indeed be, but of which I have no evidence.

I am sure that I really know many, many, things, and none more surely than that I love you with all my heart, and pray for the continuance of your life until you shall be tired of it yourself.

Thomas Jefferson, to John Adams, August 15, 1820.

Comment author: [deleted] 16 December 2011 04:58:11PM 4 points [-]

I had thought that Jefferson and Adams were bitter political rivals and so was very surprised to read this. With a quick check from Wikipedia, I learned that, "[after being] defeated for re-election by Thomas Jefferson and retir[ing] to Massachusetts, he later resumed his friendship with Jefferson."

Anyway, I like the quote for rationality purposes as well as for the fact that I now have a start on quote-mining if I ever need to write terrifying Jefferson/Adams shipping fanfiction. Why I would need to do so is nonobvious to me right now, but it is one of many contingencies for which I am now prepared.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 06 December 2011 04:19:12AM 23 points [-]

"I did not think; I investigated."

Wilhelm Roentgen, when asked by an interviewer what he thought on noticing some kind of light (X-ray-induced fluorescence) apparently passing through a solid opaque object. Quoted in de Solla Price, Science Since Babylon, expanded edition, p. 146.

Comment author: [deleted] 06 December 2011 06:43:03AM 1 point [-]

Upvoted for reading de Solla Price :)

Comment author: JJXW 05 December 2011 11:24:33PM *  4 points [-]

The crucial point to be considered in a study of language behavior is the relationship of language and reality, between words and not-words. Except as we understand this relationship, we run the grave risk of straining the delicate connection between words and facts, of permitting our words to go wild, and so of creating for ourselves fabrications of fantasy and delusion.

-- Wendell Johnson, as quoted in Language Thought and Action

Comment author: DSimon 05 December 2011 02:04:14AM *  19 points [-]

Unlike programs, computers must obey the laws of physics.

-- Alan J. Perlis, in the foreword to Structure and Interpretation of Computer Programs

Comment author: thomblake 14 December 2011 05:31:27PM 0 points [-]

This works as long as you think information is outside the purview of physics.

Comment author: DSimon 14 December 2011 06:44:53PM 2 points [-]

Mathematical systems are outside the purview of physics. I can make true statements about infinite series and n-dimensional spaces all day long and never have to actually go point at any in the real world.

Except... the decidedly non-trivial exception to this rule is that whatever is actually implementing the mathematical reasoning is constrained by physics, whether it's my brain or an i5 quad core.

Which is how I interpret the quote: the internal rules of abstract systems are not subject to physics, but the systems themselves sooner-or-later are. This is particularly relevant to programming because you can use non-physical abstractions if and only if you (or the people who wrote your tools) can explicitly represent them with physical processes.

Comment author: thomblake 14 December 2011 06:49:31PM *  0 points [-]

My point was merely that some would consider the laws of Information Theory to be contained within "the laws of physics", and programs cannot violate the laws of Information Theory.

Comment author: gwern 04 December 2011 01:47:19PM *  24 points [-]

In the autumn of 1939, Ludwig Wittgenstein and his young Cambridge student and friend Norman Malcolm were walking along the river when they saw a newspaper vendor's sign announcing that the Germans had accused the British government of instigating a recent attempt to assassinate Hitler. When Wittgenstein remarked that it wouldn't surprise him at all if it were true, Malcolm retorted that it was impossible because "the British were too civilized and decent to attempt anything so underhand, and . . . such an act was incompatible with the British 'national character'." Wittgenstein was furious. Some five years later, he wrote to Malcolm:

"Whenever I thought of you I couldn't help thinking of a particular incident which seemed to me very important. . . . you made a remark about 'national character' that shocked me by its primitiveness. I then thought: what is the use of studying philosophy if all that it does for you is to enable you to talk with some plausibility about some abstruse questions of logic, etc., & if it does not improve your thinking about the important questions of everyday life, if it does not make you more conscientious than any . . . journalist in the use of the DANGEROUS phrases such people use for their own ends."

--Marjorie Perloff, Wittgenstein's Ladder; apparently of the many attempts, the one referred to did not actually have British backing, although some did eg. the Oster Conspiracy or Operation Foxley.

(This is the full and original quote; the emphasis is on the section which is usually paraphrased as, "What is the use of studying philosophy if all that it does for you is to enable you to talk with some plausibility about some abstruse questions of logic...if it does not improve your thinking about the important questions of everyday life?")

Comment author: [deleted] 06 December 2011 09:57:55PM *  2 points [-]

The quote and comments raise two questions: 1) What was Wittgenstein chastising Malcolm for? and 2) Were their opinions rational?

On the first, I don't think there's enough information to tell. Was Wittgenstein protesting that Malcolm drew too close a connection between national character and state conduct or that Malcolm was victim of an idealized view of British national character? I think Malcolm was "primitive" for both reasons, and it seems fairly plausible that Wittgenstein might have had both in mind.

But there's a third form of primitiveness in Malcolm's remark, and Wittgenstein appears to have shared Malcolm's premise—although that's not completely clear. It is a cached-belief bias: that the assassination of any foreign head of state is immoral. Such formalism is irrational when considering a radically new development (the rise of a Nazi Germany and the degree of its dependence on its fuhrer). Only "primitive" people would assume that "decent" people necessarily eschew assassination, regardless of the despot's international role.

As I think about it, I can't dismiss that this aspect might have been what offended Wittgenstein, who does not appear to have been completely honest; to my ear, he sounds personally offended. What offended him, we might guess, is that Malcolm was insinuating that Wittgenstein's approval of such an endeavor was indecent. (A point on which Wittgenstein was, I think, sensitive and which would offend most people when directed toward them.)

Comment author: ChristianKl 04 January 2013 01:48:49PM *  0 points [-]

It is a cached-belief bias: that the assassination of any foreign head of state is immoral. Such formalism is irrational when considering a radically new development.

There nothing radically new about getting heads of state in Europe that want to wage wars. European's in that time aren't like modern American's who have no concept of honor and no respect for international law. European's fought their wars according to a honor codex that allow certain form of violence but forbids other forms.

Given the morality of the time it is indecent to violate the laws of war and go and assassinate a foreign head of state. Neither side of WWII fully followed international law and principles of honorable behavior at all times but when they didn't followed those principles they still were indecent.

You shouldn't forget the fact that Germany started WWI because of an assassination of a head of state by a government that was allied with Germany. That assassination wasn't done by France of Great Britain. Even when the British still considered Germany to be responsible for WWI they didn't thought to highly of that assassination.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 December 2011 10:26:43AM *  3 points [-]

Only "primitive" people would assume that "decent" people necessarily eschew assassination, regardless of the despot's international role.

Or you know deontologists and some virtue ethicists.

As I think about it, I can't dismiss that this aspect might have been what offended Wittgenstein, who does not appear to have been completely honest; to my ear, he sounds personally offended. What offended him, we might guess, is that Malcolm was insinuating that Wittgenstein's approval of such an endeavor was indecent. (A point on which Wittgenstein was, I think, sensitive and which would offend most people when directed toward them.)

Seems plausible actually.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 December 2011 10:50:29AM 0 points [-]

Or you know deontologists and some virtue ethicists.

They would still have to be 'primitive' deontologists and virtue ethicists.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 December 2011 11:34:35AM 0 points [-]

I suppose.

Comment author: gwern 06 December 2011 10:39:12PM 4 points [-]

I think you are seriously over-thinking that third form, and that is not what is intended at all; you can be mortally wounded that your philosophy has completely failed to teach someone a little critical thinking about how licit it is to argue an assassination attempt did not occur because of 'national character' without any regard to whether you personally approve of assassination or not. (I doubt Wittgenstein was any fan of the Nazis, what with being a secular Jew dispossessed by them and living in England.)

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 04:48:35AM *  8 points [-]

I don't understand what exactly is supposed to be so shockingly "primitive" or illogical about Malcolm's statements. The remarks about the national character of the British and their level of civilization and decency can be interpreted as a reasonable belief that conspiring to assassinate a foreign head of state would be a violation of certain norms that the British government is known to follow consistently in practice, and expected to follow by a broad consensus of the British people -- such consensus being strong enough that it can be considered part of their national character.

Now, one may argue that Malcolm had mistaken beliefs about some of the relevant facts here, but Wittgenstein's reaction looks in any case like a silly tantrum. He also seems to be using the Dark Arts tactic of throwing exalted and self-important rhetoric about general intellectual principles to draw attention away from his petty and unreasonable behavior.

Comment author: duckduckMOO 08 December 2011 04:06:45PM 2 points [-]

"The remarks about the national character of the British and their level of civilization and decency can be interpreted as a reasonable belief that conspiring to assassinate a foreign head of state would be a violation of certain norms that the British government is known to follow consistently in practice, and expected to follow by a broad consensus of the British people -- such consensus being strong enough that it can be considered part of their national character"

And when people say "I have free will" it is compatible with their being compatibilists rather than magic black-boxers. But usually they mean the black box sort.

The fact that Wittgenstein, knowing this Malcolm personally, interpreted the remark as he did is evidence in favour of that interpretation.

I was going to say your interpretation is compatible at best. But now that I've checked the quote rather than going from memory I don't think it's compatible at all:

"When Wittgenstein remarked that it wouldn't surprise him at all if it were true, Malcolm retorted that it was impossible because "the British were too civilized and decent to attempt anything so underhand, and . . . such an act was incompatible with the British 'national character'."

the retort was in response to Wittgenstein saying "it wouldn't surprise him at all if it were true"

"such consensus being strong enough that it can be considered part of their national character." This is the kind of thing Wittgenstein doesn't want you to say. National character isn't just a bunch of syllables. It encodes the idea of character inherently tied to nationality, even if that is not the specific definition used. If the consensus were 100% you'd still be confusing things by calling it the national character.

When you call something disgusting, when asked to define it you can append "causes squicky feelings" or similiar, and you can define national character as "strong enough consensus to pressure government" but people won't use those words that way and that isn't how the second was used here.

"He also seems to be using the Dark Arts tactic of throwing exalted and self-important rhetoric about general intellectual principles to draw attention away from his petty and unreasonable behavior."

His behaviour being capitalisation of dangerous in a letter to the guy five years later? Maybe the guy is too upset by some normative standard, but we have no reason to believe he's faking being upset. The deception you've implied just isn't there.Especially five years later.

In any case the "to draw attention away from his petty and unreasonable behavior" stipulation is patently false. The rhetoric is what you're calling petty and unreasonable behaviour.

You've given the first guy the most generous interpretation possible and the second the worst interpretation possible.

I get the impression you're just politicking against getting annoyed by specific word choice and against people getting upset about it (and possibly in favour of interpreting things more generously than was meant, though that could just be incidental.)

Comment author: [deleted] 06 December 2011 10:17:38PM 4 points [-]

"a violation of certain norms that the British government is known to follow consistently in practice"

What does "what is known" have to do with what is in fact? The suppressed premise is that citizens know what their governments do, even those parts of the government termed its "secret service." That governments don't operate by ordinary standards of "decency" has been known at least since Machiavelli.

Comment author: wedrifid 07 December 2011 01:58:03AM 0 points [-]

What does "what is known" have to do with what is in fact?

By common usage (and probably definition) "is known" means that the subject is factual and people are aware of it. If people want to make a claim where the subject may not be factual but is still believed then they say 'is widely believed'.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 07 December 2011 01:17:22AM *  1 point [-]

Even if the deeds of the secret services are fully secret (a big if), your argument is still incorrect. Assassinations of heads of state are rare and unusual events, and are normally investigated thoroughly. It may be that in every such assassination prior to 1939, the evidence points towards culprits other than the British secret services.

(Whether or not this is actually the case is another question; I am merely demonstrating that your argument doesn't work even if its assumptions are fully granted.)

Comment author: Vaniver 06 December 2011 03:13:53PM 2 points [-]

the British government is known to follow consistently in practice

Emphasis mine. That's the part that's the result of bias (i.e. primitive and illogical).

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 04:00:32PM *  4 points [-]

However, Wittgenstein is not criticizing Malcolm just for supposedly having wrong factual beliefs, but for mere willingness to use probabilities about beliefs and behavior of people that are conditional on their natonality. He is objecting to the very idea that the probability of the British government commiting a certain act may be different from the probability of some other government committing it, or that certain broader norms that also prohibit such behavior might be a matter of exceptionally strong consensus among the British, which would by itself provide strong evidence that their government is unlikely to exhibit it.

Comment author: Vaniver 06 December 2011 05:07:56PM 5 points [-]

I think we are interpreting Malcolm's position very differently. Malcolm isn't saying "I would be surprised; I put a low probability that the British government would do that." Malcolm appears offended- it is impossible because the British are too decent. You are right that one could, say, be less surprised by an American assassination attempt than a Canadian assassination attempt based on past actions of the governments, but that's not what Malcolm is doing here. He's exhibiting a nationalistic, self-serving bias, which Wittgenstein is right to object to.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 06:27:54PM 4 points [-]

I am not concerned with whether Malcolm was correct, and I'm not saying that Wittgenstein had nothing to object to. This is not a situation where we're judging them as symmetrical parties in a debate, but a situation where we discuss whether Wittgenstein's position deserves to be pointed out as an outstanding example of rationality. And it seems tome that even if one takes a much less favorable view of Malcolm, Wittgenstein is still displaying a fair amount of mind-killing biases.

Comment author: Vaniver 06 December 2011 08:23:13PM 1 point [-]

Would you mind naming those biases for me? I'm having a hard time seeing what you're talking about, and suspect that our disagreement may depend mostly on differing interpretations of limited information.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 07 December 2011 01:39:04AM *  5 points [-]

Basically, I think Wittgenstein was too quick to pattern-match every mention of such things as "national character" with propagandistic nationalist ramblings. I suspect this is just an instance of a bias that's been widespread in the Western world for quite a while now, namely the tendency to write off the use of certain kinds of conditional probabilities about people, including most of those conditioned on national origin, as inherently incorrect or immoral. (With a lot of equivocation about which one of these two is actually meant, and how come that the former category just happens to subsume the latter so conveniently.)

Moreover, from the "wouldn't surprise him at all" comment, it does appear that Wittgenstein had, for whatever reason, a biased unfavorable view of the British government. To the best of my knowledge about the state of the world in 1939, this would have definitely been, by all standards, an event far too surprising and shocking to characterize that way, under any reasonable interpretation of that phrase.

Finally, Wittgenstein's reaction is reported as "furious," and he describes himself as "shocked." It seems clear that the very fact that someone got into a shocked and furious state of mind during a conversation about controversial and mind-killing topics makes it very highly probable that at least some sort of bias has kicked in, even if my above guess doesn't identify it correctly.

(Come to think of it, I don't find it implausible that Wittgenstein could have been intentionally baiting Malcolm, hoping for an opportunity to show off some sanctimonious indignation. But lacking any detailed knowledge of his character, this is nothing more than idle speculation.)

Comment author: Vaniver 07 December 2011 04:10:28AM 3 points [-]

Basically, I think Wittgenstein was too quick to pattern-match every mention of such things as "national character" with propagandistic nationalist ramblings.

You suspect he's too quick to pattern-match every mention from a single example?

I suspect this is just an instance of a bias that's been widespread in the Western world for quite a while now, namely the tendency to write off the use of certain kinds of conditional probabilities about people, including most of those conditioned on national origin, as inherently incorrect or immoral.

I'm aware this is a common bias now, but I don't think it was that widespread in 1939.

Moreover, from the "wouldn't surprise him at all" comment, it does appear that Wittgenstein had, for whatever reason, a biased unfavorable view of the British government.

Perhaps this is because I have an unfavorable view of governments in general, but it seems that for an even slightly cynical student of history assassination attempts on rival heads of state by a government should not come as a surprise, especially as monarchies were replaced by democracies. It's not clear he was singling out the British, and even if he were singling out the British, it's not clear if that was the result of bias or cool calculation. (The British did have the best spy network in Europe, although whether or not Wittgenstein would have known that is not something I am able to guess.)

I agree that being biased can lead to fury, but I think for someone as passionately logical as Wittgenstein seeing bias, especially in a friend, could also lead to fury. It's not clear to me that his immediate reaction is evidence between those hypotheses, and his persisting fury strikes me as slightly better evidence for the latter. (Background: Almost twenty years earlier, Wittgenstein was rebuked as a teacher because he would also beat the girls if they made mathematical mistakes.)

That is, it is possible that Wittgenstein was biased in pronouncing Malcolm's bias, but it seems to me unlikely. The evidence seems to point the other way, especially the conclusion he draws- that philosophy should help one with the important questions of everyday life.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 07 December 2011 05:08:40AM *  4 points [-]

You suspect he's too quick to pattern-match every mention from a single example?

Admittedly, this is speculative, but from his tone I did get the impression that he was prone to such matching.

Perhaps this is because I have an unfavorable view of governments in general, but it seems that for an even slightly cynical student of history assassination attempts on rival heads of state by a government should not come as a surprise, especially as monarchies were replaced by democracies.

Actually, a very strong taboo against such assassinations follows from a very cynical theory. Namely, it provides for a convenient Schelling point for national leaders, where they can otherwise escalate war as much as they like without fear for their personal safety. (As long as they don't let themselves get totally conquered, of course.)

But more importantly, who are all these heads of state supposedly assassinated under orders from rival governments prior to 1939? Can you name any attempts of such assassinations in the period of, say, one hundred years preceding 1939? Or even just cases where the culprit is unknown, but a plot directed by a rival government seems plausible?

(The closest example I can think of is the killing of Engelbert Dollfuss that kicked off the coup attempt in 1934 by the Austrian Nazis, who were clearly acting in concert with Berlin. But even that was an all-out coup attempt accompanied by an armed Nazi uprising across the country, so not really an assassination plot, and also symptomatic of the new and unprecedented wave of political gangsterism of which the British government was not a part.)

Given this history (or rather a lack thereof), do you think that it was possible for a non-biased observer in 1939 to view the accusation against British government plot to assassinate the German head of state as unsurprising if true?

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 December 2011 04:29:13PM 0 points [-]

However, Wittgenstein is not criticizing Malcolm just for supposedly having wrong factual beliefs, but for mere willingness to use probabilities about beliefs and behavior of people that are conditional on their nationality.

This is not evident in the quote you talk about. Malcolm didn't use probablities, he called it "impossible". He didn't merely condition his guess partly on the nationality, he seems to have based it entirely on said nationality and on nothing else.

Do you know of any act, no matter of how great charity or barbarism that is so incompatible with "national character" that you can find not one person of that nation willing to commit it?

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 04:56:01PM *  3 points [-]

Do you know of any act, no matter of how great charity or barbarism that is so incompatible with "national character" that you can find not one person of that nation willing to commit it?

That is not the relevant question here. The relevant question is whether we can think of acts that are so incompatible with the "national character" that it would be inconceivable (i.e. p~0 can be assumed for all practical purposes) that any institutions of a given country's government would commit them, although such acts have been committed by governments in other places and times. The answer is obviously yes.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 December 2011 05:19:22PM 3 points [-]

That is not the relevant question here. The relevant question is whether we can think of acts that are so incompatible with the "national character" that it would be inconceivable (i.e. p~0 can be assumed for all practical purposes) that any institutions of a given country's government would commit them, although such acts have been committed by governments in other places and times. The answer is obviously yes.

I can think of only such acts as wouldn't benefit such governments in question. E.g. it wouldn't benefit the US government to cook alive suspected terrorists and use their flesh to feed its troops. Cannibalism isn't part of the American national character -- and it doesn't benefit the US government either, so it doesn't do it.

But I can't think of any acts that would be effectively impossible to be committed by an institution of any government though it would benefit it, merely because it's "not in the national character" to do so. If something is not in the national character, then said institution merely does it in secret.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 05:35:31PM *  3 points [-]

But I can't think of any acts that would be effectively impossible to be committed by an institution of any government though it would benefit it, merely because it's "not in the national character" to do so. If something is not in the national character, then said institution merely does it in secret.

For example, given the American national character, it would be inconceivable for the U.S. government to kidnap its subjects' daughters to serve as concubines in the president's harem. (Something that many historical governments in fact did openly.) Do you therefore conclude that this is in fact being done in secret? Or maybe that the only reason why it's not being done is the difficulty of keeping it secret?

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 December 2011 05:59:32PM 8 points [-]

Do you therefore conclude that this is in fact being done in secret? Or maybe that the only reason why it's not being done is the difficulty of keeping it secret?

Primarily the latter. Consider this:
North Korea abducts women for the president's harem.
South Korea does not (neither openly nor secretly, with p~0).

And yet it's people of the same nationality on both sides of the border. Therefore such things don't seem to me to be primarily dependent on "national character". They seem to be primarily about what each leader can get away with doing. South Korea and America are semi-democratic capitalist states. North Korea is a totalitarian regime.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 06:51:15PM 7 points [-]

To get back to my comment where I explained what I consider to be a reasonable interpretation of "national character," I defined it thus:

[N]orms that the British government is known to follow consistently in practice, and expected to follow by a broad consensus of the British people -- such consensus being strong enough that it can be considered part of their national character.

In this discussion, I am not at all interested in the exact connection that these norms have with ethnicity or any other factors. I merely claim that for whatever reason, there is variation in such norms across governments, which sometimes gives very strong information on what they may be capable of doing.

(And anyway, several decades of life under radically different regimes imposed by foreign conquerors, one of which practices extreme isolation, will cause cultural divergences that run deeper than the immediate structure of clear incentives. Moreover, this one example is not conclusive proof that all such differences in governments' behaviors in all places and times are caused by the same factor.)

Comment author: MixedNuts 06 December 2011 06:07:20PM 3 points [-]

They have different citizenships, different cultural messages from birth, different access to such messages from the rest of the world (such as the US). They cannot accurately be described as having the same nationality.

Comment author: MixedNuts 06 December 2011 05:52:16PM 0 points [-]

Which governments did so? I can only think of some that politely asked families to send them their daughters.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 December 2011 10:24:10AM 4 points [-]

I can only think of some that politely asked families to send them their daughters.

Reread that phrase with a cynic's mind in the context of a power struggle.

Comment author: Oligopsony 06 December 2011 05:45:47PM -1 points [-]

How would that benefit the US government?

Comment author: Desrtopa 06 December 2011 04:46:39PM 1 point [-]

Well, to be fair the proposition that the assassination attempt had British backing implicitly means that it had systematic approval in at least some government division, so it's a rather stronger claim than saying that at least one British person was willing to commit resources to backing the attack. But it did seem to me that Wittgenstein was criticizing his student for naive and sloppy thinking (which he was indeed guilty of) not for having the belief that there can be prevailing trends in national character.

Comment author: gwern 06 December 2011 02:46:00PM *  8 points [-]

Malcolm was one of Wittgenstein's most promising students; yet even he fell - unquestioningly - into the vapid jingoistic idea that there are intrinsic 'national characters' (aggregates over millions of people of multiple regions!) which carry moral qualities despite the obvious conflict of interest (who is telling him the English are too noble to assassinate), that they exist and carry enough information to overrule public claims like that, and all his philosophical training which ought to have given him some modicum of critical thought, some immunity against nationalism, did nothing. And in point of fact, he was blatantly wrong, which is why I linked the British-connected plots and assassins.

The remarks about the national character of the British and their level of civilization and decency can be interpreted as a reasonable belief that conspiring to assassinate a foreign head of state would be a violation of certain norms that the British government is known to follow consistently in practice, and expected to follow by a broad consensus of the British people -- such consensus being strong enough that it can be considered part of their national character.

Uh huh. And if a Tea Partier tells you that Abu Ghraib was just youthful spirits and black sites don't exist, well, obviously that's a reasonable interpretation of the facts based on that non-chimerical 'national character' or a broad consensus of the American people... Whatever.

In retrospect maybe I should've rewritten the anecdote as a German saying it (about Churchill claiming a German attempt on his life) and an English rebuking him later, just to see whether there would be anyone trying to justify it. (It's not that famous a Wittgenstein quote, I don't think anyone would notice.)

Comment author: lessdazed 07 December 2011 03:15:27PM 1 point [-]

And in point of fact, he was blatantly wrong, which is why I linked the British-connected plots and assassins.

Did you also have other examples you were thinking of?

Comment author: gwern 07 December 2011 03:41:58PM *  1 point [-]

Particular examples? No, not really; but http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_assassination is good reading, if a bit short and lacking in less substantiated details.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 08 December 2011 05:27:18AM *  1 point [-]

As far as I see, neither of the examples you linked provides any evidence that in 1939 it was incorrect to consider a British government assassination plot against Hitler as wildly implausible. The Oster conspiracy was an internal German plot, and the Foxley plan was just a proposal that was never approved nor carried out (and even as such, it occurred only after five years of a total war in which nearly all other centuries-old conventions of civilized warfare had been discarded -- a world very different from the one five years earlier).

Also, your Wikipedia link above fails to mention even a single assassination that would have been within living memory in 1939, and which would have matched the pattern of a government conspiring to assassinate a foreign leader. So if anything, it goes against your claims.

Comment author: hairyfigment 08 December 2011 10:05:38PM 2 points [-]

Also, your Wikipedia link above fails to mention even a single assassination that would have been within living memory in 1939, and which would have matched the pattern of a government conspiring to assassinate a foreign leader.

Successful assassination? Does that seem like the most relevant standard when it comes to the original question?

(On a side-note, the CIA seems to endorse the claim that Britain's SIS killed Rasputin. Surely we can trust the CIA...)

Comment author: gwern 08 December 2011 09:33:05PM *  2 points [-]

Also, your Wikipedia link above fails to mention even a single assassination that would have been within living memory in 1939, and which would have matched the pattern of a government conspiring to assassinate a foreign leader. So if anything, it goes against your claims.

'a government'? Yeah, it doesn't because it's not a comprehensive list. If you want lists, look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinations_and_assassination_attempts or http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassinated_people#Assassinations_in_Europe or heck, for anything to do with Hitler like the Nazi assassination of Engelbert Dollfuss, look in Google Books pre-1940.

If you're going to be mind-killed yourself, Vlad, posting endless nitpicking comments here trying to rebut anything anyone says, you should at least be more precise in your demands, because it is trivial to find attempts, even despite all secrecy and faded memories.

(And I believe the mutual wars of assassination between the British and the Irish, eg. Tomás Mac Curtain, have already been pointed out to you, which would have been well-known to any educated person living through the troubles; feel free to dig through Google Books looking for even more assassinations.)

Comment author: lessdazed 09 December 2011 08:24:31AM 0 points [-]

And in point of fact, he was blatantly wrong, which is why I linked the British-connected plots and assassins.

If you're going to be mind-killed yourself, Vlad, posting endless nitpicking comments here trying to rebut anything anyone says, you should at least be more precise in your demands, because it is trivial to find attempts, even despite all secrecy and faded memories.

I think that the examples you cited didn't support your claim for the same reasons Vladmir_M gave.

I specifically asked if you had other examples in mind, rather than if they existed, to avoid making a claim that could be refuted by some one of the endless historical facts unknown to me. Your claim was far too strong if you didn't have specific examples in mind, regardless of their existence.

The cases of assassination all seem distinguishable, for example, the premise of the Anglo-Irish war was that Britain did not consider Ireland an independent nation, the assassination of Dollfuss weakens Vladimir_M's claim about the inconceivability of assassination without damaging it overmuch, as it was Nazis who did it, etc.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 09 December 2011 04:51:51AM *  4 points [-]

If you're going to be mind-killed yourself, Vlad, posting endless nitpicking comments here trying to rebut anything anyone says, you should at least be more precise in your demands, because it is trivial to find attempts, even despite all secrecy and faded memories.

I am disputing your very central claim, so even if I am wrong, I don't see how this can possibly constitute "nitpicking." If it was in fact reasonable in 1939 to consider the possibility of a British plot to assassinate Hitler as wildly implausible, your original points don't stand at all.

And indeed, I do believe that government-orchestrated assassination plots against a head of a foreign state were indeed considered a wholly separate category of wrongdoing back then, and one that was a particular taboo. You just can't put other sorts of assassinations in the same reference class.

If you insist that things like the assassinations during the sectarian struggles in Ireland fall into the same reference class, then the inferential distances may really be too large for us to have a productive discussion here. But still note that you won't find any examples of the particular sort I asked for. (Except arguably for the killing of Dollfuss, something that it actually took the Nazis to do.)

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 03:43:07PM *  11 points [-]

With all due respect, you are getting seriously mind-killed here.

Do you agree that the probability of a person accepting and following certain norms (and more generally, acting and thinking in certain ways) can be higher or lower conditional on them belonging to a specific nationality? Similarly, would you agree that the probability of a government acting in a certain way may strongly depend on the government in question? Or are these "vapid jingoistic idea[s]"?

For example, suppose I'm an American and someone warns me that the U.S. government would have me tortured to death in the public square if I called the U.S. president a rascal. I reply that while such fears would be justified in many other places and times, they are unfounded in this case, since Americans are too civilized and decent to tolerate such things, and it is in their national character to consider criticizing (and even insulting) the president as a fundamental right. What exactly would be fallacious about this reply?

Note that I accept it as perfectly reasonable if one argues that Malcolm was factually mistaken about the character of the British government. What I object to is grandstanding rhetoric and moral posturing that tries to justify what is in fact nothing more than a display of the usual human frailty in a petty politicking quarrel.

Comment author: hairyfigment 06 December 2011 08:51:36PM 0 points [-]

suppose I'm an American and someone warns me that the U.S. government would have me tortured to death in the public square if I called the U.S. president a rascal. I reply that while such fears would be justified in many other places and times, they are unfounded in this case, since Americans are too civilized and decent to tolerate such things, and it is in their national character to consider criticizing (and even insulting) the president as a fundamental right. What exactly would be fallacious about this reply?

The fake explanation. What does the claim of 'civilization' and 'decency' add to the assertion? (Recall that Wittgenstein specifically objects to "dangerous phrases".) Does it help you predict that, eg, child-molesters could die painfully in prison, out of the public eye but not out of mind? What does it tell you about the public use of pain in other cases? Seems to me the meaningful part of your hypothetical reply ends with "in this case," since you've already drawn a line around the USA by saying that it differs from "many other places and times".

It also seems like (when you speak of "probability") you're defending a statement that Perloff does not record Malcolm making, while criticizing Wittgenstein for traits this particular passage does not clearly show.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 09:18:36PM *  4 points [-]

The fake explanation. What does the claim of 'civilization' and 'decency' add to the assertion?

I added these word specifically to parallel the paraphrase of Malcolm's claim. The rationale for their use is that there exists a specific (if somewhat vague and, on some dimensions, disputed) cluster in the space of all possible systems of social norms that is commonly associated with these words in modern English. Among other things, this includes a negative attitude towards public judicial torture and open repression of (some kinds of) anti-government speech (relevant for my example), as well as towards assassination plots against foreign leaders (relevant for Malcolm's example -- and possibly a matter of greater outrage back in his day).

So it's not a fake explanation, because it points to a real existing cluster of norms that have been dominant in the Western world in recent history. This can in turn be used, for example, to point to other norms in this cluster and predict that they are correlated with the listed examples across societies.

Note that here I'm merely using these words with their customary meaning, not to express unreserved approval of this entire cluster of norms.

It also seems like (when you speak of "probability") you're defending a statement that Perloff does not record Malcolm making, while criticizing Wittgenstein for traits this particular passage does not clearly show.

As I already pointed out, we are not judging Malcolm and Wittgenstein as two equal participants in a debate. Rather, we are discussing whether the latter's criticism really is up to such high standards that it deserves being extolled as a sterling example of rational thinking. Hence my sticter scrutiny of him, and my tendency to give maximally charitable interpretation to Malcolm.

Comment author: Emile 06 December 2011 05:21:50PM *  7 points [-]

Do you agree that the probability of a person accepting and following certain norms (and more generally, acting and thinking in certain ways) can be higher or lower conditional on them belonging to a specific nationality? Similarly, would you agree that the probability of a government acting in a certain way may strongly depend on the government in question?

I agree, but I don't think that you're describing Malcolm's position - Wittgenstein was the one expressing uncertainty on the issue ("When Wittgenstein remarked that it wouldn't surprise him at all if it were true, Malcolm retorted that it was impossible"), so for Malcolm to disagree with him he must be quite confident, not merely think that the British are less likely to assassinate than others.

And when someone has undue confidence in how good his group is, beyond what evidence mandates - than yes, it seems correct to say that he was mind-killed by his "primitive" jingoism, and Wittgenstein is correct to rebuke him.

If I read about an assassination attempt on Hitler and about how some said it was mandated by the British, then my position would be Wittgenstein's - that it wouldn't surprise me if that was true (even before reading Gwern's post). It may be that hindsight is 20/20, but I think Malcolm, who had much more information about the times than I do, should have been able to see more clearly.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 08:41:07PM 3 points [-]

I think you're underestimating just how horrible the idea of assassinating foreign leaders sounded back then, especially leaders of other nations recognized as major powers. Such a thing was definitely much higher on the relative scale of outrages back then than nowadays. (Though of course things had already changed a lot in practice by 1939, by which political gangsterism had already been running rampant through the Western world for over two decades.)

Indeed, I find it quite plausible that Malcolm was motivated not so much by nationalistic bias, as by a naive and antiquated view of politics, despite his youth. Reading about his reaction, many people nowadays will likely overestimate how unrealistically favorable his opinion of Britain must have been for him to consider this accusation absurd.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 December 2011 04:22:15PM 5 points [-]

Note that I accept it as perfectly reasonable if one argues that Malcolm was factually mistaken about the character of the British government.

Malcolm spoke about the British national character (not the character of the British government) and from this he arbitrarily leaped to thinking that it binds the actions of the British government; as if the British government is somehow a random or representative sample of the British population.

The assumptions and leaps of logic necessary for this flawed logic are obvious to those who've managed to avoid thinking of whole nations as if they're homogeneous groups. Wittgenstein was correct to call it primitive. Malcolm was not saying anything more intelligent or subtle or deep than "Our monkey tribe good! Therefore nobody from our monkey tribe ever do bad thing!" If the representation of the conversation is a fair one, Malcolm wasn't wise enough to be able to even distinguish between government and governed, and consider the differences that might accumulated to each.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 December 2011 10:14:34AM *  2 points [-]

"Our monkey tribe good! Therefore nobody from our monkey tribe ever do bad thing!"

Don't forget Wittgenstein may have reacted as he did out his own emotional attachment as well.

"Who you to say your monkey tribe so much better than mine!"

Which is not to imply that he was identifying with Nazis, which he obviously wasn't, but you would be surprised how many historic accounts of those of say Jewish descent that fled the National Socialist regime still overall held German and Austrian culture and "national character" in higher esteem than that of say the British, Russians or Americans, we have.

"If my monkey tribe can do horrible things, well yours isn't that different!"

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 07 December 2011 10:43:02AM *  2 points [-]

Don't forget Wittgenstein may have reacted as he did out his own emotional attachment as well.

"Who you to say your monkey tribe so much better than mine!"

Agreed. Or from e.g. feeling betrayed that Malcolm didn't consider him and Wittgenstein to belong in the same monkey tribe for all intends and purposes. I've not read any of Wittgenstein, but if he was of internationalist ideology, he might have been disappointed to see nationalist sentiment in Malcolm (which would put Malcolm and Wittgenstein in different tribes) rather than whatever ideological/political/racial/religious/class distinctions would have put them in the same tribe.

I don't make the same tribal distinctions that a Greek nationalist would make, or a white nationalist would make. For someone to put much weight on such distinctions would mark him as a different tribe according to my distinctions, even though I'm Greek and white too.

Comment author: Oligopsony 07 December 2011 01:37:36PM *  13 points [-]

This makes me think of one of those intellectual hipster Hegelian dialectic thingies.

Idiot: My monkeys are better than your monkeys. (Blood for the blood god, etc; Malcolm.)

Contrarian: My monkeys are better than your monkeys, because they don't say things like "My monkeys are better than your monkeys." (Secular Western cosmopolitanism, faith in progress, etc; Wittgenstein.)

Hipster: My monkeys are better than your monkeys, because they don't say things like "My monkeys are better than your monkeys, because they don't say things like 'My monkeys are better than your monkeys.'" (Postmodernism, cultural relativism, etc; Vladimir.)

It amuses me that I can think of a few trendy Continentals right now who base their appeal on working at level four.

Comment author: [deleted] 07 December 2011 11:37:29AM *  4 points [-]

People can get very upset when those they like, "suddenly" turn out not to be "part" of the same tribe.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 05:24:35PM 6 points [-]

Malcolm spoke about the British national character (not the character of the British government) and from this he arbitrarily leaped to thinking that it binds the actions of the British government; as if the British government is somehow a random or representative sample of the British population.

Such an absurd assumption is not necessary. It is sufficient that the way government officials are selected from the British population doesn't specifically select for traits contrary to the "national character," or that their behavior is constrained by what the general public would be outraged at, even when they act in secret. (Note also that this isn't necessarily due to rational fear of being caught -- people are normally afraid and reluctant to do outrageous things even when rational calculations tell them the probability of getting caught is negligible. With the exception of certain things where hypocrisy is the unspoken de facto norm, of course, but that's not the case here.)

Malcolm was not saying anything more intelligent or subtle or deep than "Our monkey tribe good! Therefore nobody from our monkey tribe ever do bad thing!"

Malcolm may well have been guilty of such thinking, but at the same time, Wittgenstein clearly had a fit of irrational anger at the suggestion that probabilities of monkey behaviors are not independent of their tribe. (I won't speculate on what part his own residues of tribal feelings might have played here.)

And nobody here is claiming that Malcolm was correct -- merely that Wittgenstein's reaction was hardly the paragon of rationality it's presented to be.

Comment author: ChristianKl 04 January 2013 02:11:02PM 0 points [-]

It is sufficient that the way government officials are selected from the British population doesn't specifically select for traits contrary to the "national character," or that their behavior is constrained by what the general public would be outraged at, even when they act in secret.

I don't think the phrase "national character" does refer to the belief of the general public in this context. It refers more to the character of the British elite.

Comment author: Morendil 06 December 2011 04:02:12PM 1 point [-]

I reply that while such fears would be justified in many other places and times, they are unfounded in this case, since Americans are too civilized and decent to tolerate such things, and it is in their national character to consider criticizing (and even insulting) the president as a fundamental right. What exactly would be fallacious about this reply?

You are correct that such fears are unfounded in this case, but not owing to the "national character" of Americans. Rather, they are unfounded owing to the very public nature of the action your fears concern; carrying out such an action publicly would predictably raise an outcry, with hard-to-predict consequences on things like behaviour of the electorate and of the media; from an utilitarian standpoint the US government is better off finding subtler ways of coercing you, and has very little to gain from silencing this particular type of dissent.

But covert action, and covert action taken against leaders of foreign countries, might be a different calculation entirely. So the fallacious nature of the reply would arise from not comparing like with like.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 04:34:41PM *  5 points [-]

In this case, the "national character" would manifest itself in the public outcry (it's certainly easy to imagine a population that would insted cheer while the seditious traitor is being executed). However, even regardless of that, would you agree that the U.S. government officials themselves are more likely to feel honest revulsion towards this idea compared to their equivalents from various other historical governments, and that they would be less likely to retaliate this way even if they could somehow get away with it?

It is clearly true that "national character," for obvious reasons, provides much more solid evidence when considering public opinion and mass behaviors. However, the amount of evidence it provides about the possible behaviors of small groups of government officials behind closed doors is also not negligible. This especially since secrets are hard to keep.

In Malcolm's case, the argument would be that British government officials are unlikely to conspire to assassinate the German head of state because, being British, they are likely to share intense revulsion towards such an idea, and also to fear the exceptional outrage among the British public should they be caught doing it. Once again, I have no problem if someone thinks that this argument rests on completely wrong factual beliefs and probability estimates. My problem is with attempts to delegitimize it based on lofty rhetoric that in fact tries to mask irrational anger at the fact that nationality indeed gives some non-zero evidence on people's beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors.

Comment author: Morendil 06 December 2011 08:52:04PM 0 points [-]

would you agree that the U.S. government officials themselves are more likely to feel honest revulsion towards this idea compared to their equivalents from various other historical governments

Not necessarily. I don't know to what extent government officials of all countries are more like the typical citizen of their own country than they are like other government officials of any other country. It's not clear to me which reference class would dominate in assigning priors.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 07 December 2011 02:40:24AM 2 points [-]

Just to avoid misunderstanding, the question is whether the views of a typical U.S. government official about what criticisms of government are permissible are more similar to the average U.S. citizen, or to the views of government officials averaged across the whole world, or even across all governments that ever existed. Am I understanding correctly that you see this as a highly uncertain question?

Comment author: Morendil 07 December 2011 09:00:19AM 2 points [-]

Yup. The dynamic I have in mind is this: to become a government official, one must first pass a certain set of filters, which are likely to select for the kind of person who'll view anyone criticizing their government as scum who deserve no better than a public beating.

This is definitely not the only dynamic in play; but if you want to deny that this dynamic exists, you will have to bring evidence to bear to overcome its strong plausibility.

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 06 December 2011 04:40:23PM *  0 points [-]

In Malcolm's case, the argument would be that British government officials are be unlikely to conspire to assassinate the German head of state because, being British, they are likely to share intense revulsion towards such an idea, and also to fear the exceptional outrage among the British public should they be caught doing it

Malcolm doesn't make that claim if the description of the argument is a fair one. It's not the word "unlikely" but the word "impossible" that is used; and the fear of an outrage by the public isn't discussed.

It may be a good thing to correct an opponent's argument before you defeat it, but we're not obliged to actually call it a good argument.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 06 December 2011 08:12:10PM *  5 points [-]

In this situation, Malcolm's statements were only briefly paraphrased by his opponent, and the criticism of Malcolm is being presented as a great and commendable example of rational thinking. In such a context, I believe it's only fair and reasonable to give Malcolm's reported statements maximally charitable reading.

In particular, I think it's reasonable to interpret "impossible" in its casual meaning (i.e. merely vastly improbable, not literally disallowed by the laws of logic and physics). Moreover, I also think it's reasonable to interpret "national character" in a way that makes his statements more sensible, i.e. as including all factors that determine what behaviors are a priori more or less likely from a given government and its officials and subjects.

Comment author: J_Taylor 04 December 2011 12:04:58PM *  13 points [-]

When you choose

How much postage to use,

When you know

What's the chance it will snow,

When you bet

And you end up in debt,

Oh try as you may,

You just can't get away

From mathematics!

Tom Lehrer, "That's Mathematics"

(If one were so inclined, one could give a quasi-rationalist commentary on practically every lyric in that song.)

Comment author: J_Taylor 04 December 2011 08:23:34AM 28 points [-]

Nobody panics when things go "according to plan"… even if the plan is horrifying.

  • The Joker
Comment author: MixedNuts 04 December 2011 06:19:54PM 15 points [-]

Well, that makes sense. They've panicked earlier, when the plan was announced.

Comment author: Ezekiel 05 December 2011 07:55:04PM 12 points [-]

Not necessarily. The human race wasn't around when "Everyone dies" was announced, so we never had the opportunity to panic properly.

Comment author: DanielLC 06 December 2011 12:58:00AM 7 points [-]

Each individual was around when it was announced to them.

Comment author: shokwave 06 December 2011 06:00:03AM 15 points [-]

And each individual panics! Witness the common existential crisis: execute a head-first dive into mild depression and loudly proclaim your conversion to pure hedonism. But since nobody else is currently panicking, the individual comes to mimic the standard mental state. Which may not be the correct mental state...

Comment author: Ezekiel 20 December 2011 02:21:38PM 0 points [-]

Do you really think that panic is in response to the (perceived) inevitability of death? The arguments (and sensibilities) for and against hedonism don't change if people stop dying. I think.

Comment author: J_Taylor 04 December 2011 08:10:29AM *  22 points [-]

"If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses."

-Probably not Henry Ford

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/08/henry_ford_never_said_the_fast.html

Comment author: harshhpareek 04 December 2011 07:32:21AM *  12 points [-]

The Meander (aka Menderes) is a river in Turkey. As you might expect, it winds all over the place. But it doesn't do this out of frivolity. The path it has discovered is the most economical route to the sea

-- Paul Graham, "The Age of the Essay" (http://www.paulgraham.com/essay.html)

Comment author: jimmy 15 December 2011 07:04:55PM *  4 points [-]

But its not true. (well, under the most reasonable interpretations that come to mind)

Rivers do meander "frivolously" due to instabilities.

Even if it didn't carve into the earth, it wouldn't be true, since it's a simple gradient descent.

Comment author: Grognor 04 December 2011 06:40:05AM *  3 points [-]

Imagine there's no heaven

It's easy if you try

No hell below us

Above us only sky

-John Lennon on leaving a line of retreat

Comment author: spriteless 07 December 2011 10:52:06PM 6 points [-]

You know, in Middle School choir I had hymns alongside this song. It was actually the first time I thought about being an atheist on purpose, not just through neglecting to go to church.

Comment author: gwern 04 December 2011 01:49:36PM 3 points [-]

Not actually a dupe, to my surprise. (Personally, I would've linked to 'Joy in the Merely Real' or something; lines of retreat doesn't seem that relevant.)

Comment author: Grognor 04 December 2011 06:32:37PM *  1 point [-]

Well, the leaving a line of retreat article actually gives the example of a religious person imagining the world (even if they don't think it's really possible) where there's no god. Joy in the merely real makes sense too, I guess.

I actually gave it 50% odds that I'd lose karma for this quote, but I like it anyway.

Comment author: M88 04 December 2011 03:30:07AM *  7 points [-]

With ten-thousand-time-told truths, you've still got to ask for proof. Ask for proof, because if you're dying to be led they'll lead you up the hill in chains to their popular refrains until your slaughter's been arranged, my little lamb, and it's much too late to talk the knife out of their hands.

"The Latest Toughs" by Okkervil River http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tziQcj4XIYw

Comment author: Daniel_Burfoot 04 December 2011 12:23:32AM 21 points [-]

In the early 1970's it cost $7 to buy a share in [Warren Buffett's] company, and that same share is worth $4,900 today... That makes Buffett a wonderful investor. What makes him the greatest investor of all time is that during a certain period when he thought stocks were grossly overpriced, he sold everything and returned all the money to his partners at a sizable profit to them. The voluntary returning of money that others would gladly pay you to continue to manage is, in my experience, unique in the history of finance.

  • Peter Lynch, "One Up on Wall Street"
Comment author: Ezekiel 03 December 2011 08:47:44PM *  -2 points [-]

Any sufficiently analysed magic is indistinguishable from technology.

~ Girl Genius

(They're actually talking about fantasy fiction, but the principle applies to real life as well.)

Comment author: Zack_M_Davis 04 December 2011 06:42:20AM 1 point [-]