orthonormal comments on Funnel plots: the study that didn't bark, or, visualizing regression to the null - Less Wrong

47 Post author: gwern 04 December 2011 11:05AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (40)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: orthonormal 03 December 2011 11:23:27PM *  9 points [-]

Feynman talked about this exact phenomenon in physics, with an excellent explanation:

We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops, and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It's a little bit off, because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It's interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of the electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bigger than Millikan's, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn't they discover that the new number was higher right away? It's a thing that scientists are ashamed of--this history--because it's apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan's, they thought something must be wrong--and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number closer to Millikan's value they didn't look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We've learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don't have that kind of a disease.

But this long history of learning how not to fool ourselves--of having utter scientific integrity--is, I'm sorry to say, something that we haven't specifically included in any particular course that I know of. We just hope you've caught on by osmosis.

ETA: Citation from Cargo Cult Science.

Comment author: Normal_Anomaly 03 December 2011 11:53:42PM 9 points [-]

This is one of the most annoying things about grade school science labs for me. We already know going into the lab what the result should be, and if we get something different we know we need to figure out where we went wrong. The fact is that high school students are never going to get the same accuracy and precision as professional experimenters, but labs should still be conducted before the lesson on the principles involved. Then afterward teachers can ask the students whether they think their numbers are too high, or too low, or whatever.

Comment author: RomeoStevens 05 December 2011 08:27:06AM 3 points [-]

yes, potential sources of error should be thought about and discussed openly BEFORE and AFTER the experiment and only then should the theoretical results be compared.