ScroogeMcDuck comments on Hack Away at the Edges - Less Wrong

48 Post author: lukeprog 01 December 2011 01:26PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_M 02 December 2011 01:58:59AM *  26 points [-]

"Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration," said Thomas Edison, and he should've known: It took him hundreds of tweaks to get his incandescent light bulb to work well, and he was already building on the work of 22 earlier inventors of incandescent lights.

On the other hand, Nikola Tesla had this to say about Edison's methodology:

If Edison had a needle to find in a haystack, he would proceed at once with the diligence of the bee to examine straw after straw until he found the object of his search. [...] His method was inefficient in the extreme, for an immense ground had to be covered to get anything at all unless blind chance intervened... [...] I was almost a sorry witness of such doings, knowing that a little theory and calculation would have saved him ninety per cent of his labor.

Even allowing for a significant bias against Edison on Tesla's part, it does seem like he relied on perspiration to an extraordinary degree among high achievers. Of course, even that diligence wouldn't have been of much use if it hadn't come together with a very considerable talent.

More generally, there are two problems with the general message of this article:

  1. It is delusional for most people to believe that they can contribute usefully to really hard problems. (Except in trivial ways, like helping those who are capable of it with mundane tasks in order to free up more of their time and energy.) There is such a thing as innate talent, and doing useful work on some things requires an extraordinary degree of it.

  2. There is also a nasty failure mode for organized scientific effort when manpower and money are thrown at problems that seem impossibly hard, hoping that "hacking away at the edges" will eventually lead to major breakthroughs. Instead of progress, or even an honest pessimistic assessment of the situation, this may easily create perverse incentives for cargo-cult work that will turn the entire field into a vast heap of nonsense.

Comment author: Louie 02 December 2011 09:29:39AM *  24 points [-]

It is delusional for most people to believe that they can contribute usefully to really hard problems.

It's damaging to repeat this though, since most bright people who are 1 in 10,000+ think they are 1 in 10 due to Dunning-Krugger effects.

Except in trivial ways, like helping those who are capable of it with mundane tasks in order to free up more of their time and energy.

Mundane work is not trivial. For instance, I've watched lukeprog spend more of his days moving furniture at Singularity Institute in the past 6 months than anyone else in Berkeley... including dozens of volunteers and community members in the area all of whom could have have done it, none of whom considered trying. For most tasks, hours really are fungible. If otherwise smart people didn't think mundane work was trivial, we'd get so much more done. Nothing is harder for me to get done at Singularity Institute than work that "anybody could do".

As another example, I've had 200 volunteers offer to do work for Singularity Institute. Many have claimed they would do "anything" or "whatever helped the most". SEO is clearly the most valuable work. Unfortunately, it's something "so mundane", that anybody could do it... therefore, 0 out of 200 volunteers are currently working on it. This is even after I've personally asked over 100 people to help with it.

Comment author: [deleted] 08 December 2011 09:04:45AM *  4 points [-]

Have you thought about studying the persuasive and motivational arts in an attempt to increase this batting average? I'm always fascinated how watching videos by Internet marketer Eben Pagan makes me want to buy his stuff, forgetting the fact that I could probably get comparable knowledge from much cheaper library books. Sometimes I wish all of the advice I read came in an Eben Pagan format.

For what it's worth, I just submitted Less Wrong and its articles to 2 subreddits, 3 link directories, and Hacker News... and now I'm resting easy in the knowledge that I've saved trillions of future lives in expected value. (Only mentioning this in case anyone else is interested in saving trillions of lives, of course. Reddit is probably a good place to start, especially if you already have an account; my reddit submission rate is throttled severely.)

See what I tried to do there? ;)

I suspect the first step is to transition from blame-oriented language to opportunity-oriented language.