alexflint comments on Hack Away at the Edges - Less Wrong

48 Post author: lukeprog 01 December 2011 01:26PM

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Comment author: Vladimir_M 02 December 2011 01:58:59AM *  26 points [-]

"Genius is 1 percent inspiration, 99 percent perspiration," said Thomas Edison, and he should've known: It took him hundreds of tweaks to get his incandescent light bulb to work well, and he was already building on the work of 22 earlier inventors of incandescent lights.

On the other hand, Nikola Tesla had this to say about Edison's methodology:

If Edison had a needle to find in a haystack, he would proceed at once with the diligence of the bee to examine straw after straw until he found the object of his search. [...] His method was inefficient in the extreme, for an immense ground had to be covered to get anything at all unless blind chance intervened... [...] I was almost a sorry witness of such doings, knowing that a little theory and calculation would have saved him ninety per cent of his labor.

Even allowing for a significant bias against Edison on Tesla's part, it does seem like he relied on perspiration to an extraordinary degree among high achievers. Of course, even that diligence wouldn't have been of much use if it hadn't come together with a very considerable talent.

More generally, there are two problems with the general message of this article:

  1. It is delusional for most people to believe that they can contribute usefully to really hard problems. (Except in trivial ways, like helping those who are capable of it with mundane tasks in order to free up more of their time and energy.) There is such a thing as innate talent, and doing useful work on some things requires an extraordinary degree of it.

  2. There is also a nasty failure mode for organized scientific effort when manpower and money are thrown at problems that seem impossibly hard, hoping that "hacking away at the edges" will eventually lead to major breakthroughs. Instead of progress, or even an honest pessimistic assessment of the situation, this may easily create perverse incentives for cargo-cult work that will turn the entire field into a vast heap of nonsense.

Comment author: alexflint 17 January 2012 06:58:22PM 8 points [-]

It is delusional for most people to believe that they can contribute usefully to really hard problems.

This seems more and more like the most damaging meme ever created on LessWrong. It persistently leads to people that could have made useful contributions (to AI safety) making no such contribution. Would it be a better world in which lots more people tried to contribute usefully to FAI and a small percentage succeeded? Yes, it would, even taking into account whatever cost the unsuccessful people pay.

Comment author: kilobug 17 January 2012 07:59:56PM 1 point [-]

There are many ways to do, even small, contributions for everyone. The easiest is giving money (to someone whom you believe is trying to address the "really hard problems"). But there are many others. I would take two examples of things I do (or plan to do in the short future) : I'm helping with the French translation of HP:MoR and I'll (try to at least, nothing serious done yet) help SIAI with migrating their publication to their new LaTeX template (see http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/9d3/new_si_publications_design/ ). Both are tiny contributions, but which can in the hand help in various ways the SIAI to tackle the really hard problems. A lot of people doing those small things can allow the great things to happen much faster.

Of course, you can replace SIAI with anyone you think could solve the hard problems - other kind of research, charity, political party if you believe a given one is doing more good than harm, ...

The hardest part in that is probably in identifying who is more likely to actually help in solving the really hard problems. I tend to "invest" my energy and money in different kind of entities, hoping at least one of them will do something good enough on the long run.

Comment author: alexflint 19 January 2012 12:16:18PM 0 points [-]

I agree. But compared to where we are right now, I think more people should actually go work directly on the core FAI problem. If the smartest half of each LW meetup earnestly and persistently worked on the most promising open problem they could identify, I'd give 50% chance that at least one would make valuable progress somewhere.