Do you think F(P1) is more than epsilon different from F(P2)? Than F(P3)? Do you think F(P2) is more than epsilon different from F(P3)?

Erm, yes, to all three. The two transitions all involve things which are initially plausible and have not been driven down to epsilon (which is a very small quantity) by subsequent research.

For example, we still don't have great evidence that brain activity isn't dynamicly dependent on electrical activity (among others!) which is destroyed by death/cryonics. All we have are a few scatter-shot examples about hypothermia and stuff, which is a level of proof I would barely deign to look at for supplements, much less claim that it's such great evidence that it drives down the probability of error to epsilon!