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Sophronius comments on 2011 Survey Results - Less Wrong
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Yea, I noticed that too. They are so close together that I wrote it off as noise, though. Otherwise, it can be explained by religious people being irrational and unwilling to place god in the same category as ghosts and other "low status" beliefs. That doesn't indicate irrationality on the part of the rest of less wrong.
That would work if it was separate surveys, but in order to get that on one survey, individual people would have to give a higher probability to God than any supernatural.
True, but this could be the result of a handful of people giving a crazy answer (noise). Not really indicative of less wrong as a whole. I imagine most less wrongers gave negligible probabilities for both, allowing a few religious people to skew the results.
I was thinking you meant statistical error.
Do you mean trolls, or people who don't understand the question?
Neither, I meant people who don't understand that the probability of a god should be less than the probability of something supernatural existing. Add in religious certainty and you get a handful of people giving answers like P(god) = 99% and P(supernatural) = 50% which can easily skew the results if the rest of less wrong gives probabilities like 1%and 2% respectively. Given what Yvain wrote in the OP though, I think there's also plenty of evidence of trolls upsetting the results somewhat at points.
Of course, it would make much more sense to ask Yvain for more data on how people answered this question rather than speculate on this matter :p